DETERMINANTS OF OUTCOMES OF PREGNANCY

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The purpose of this project is to update and extend past studies of infant health production functions to simulate the effects of changes in abortion regulations. The role of abortion is of interest given a recent Supreme Court decision (Webster v. Reproductive Health Services) and the potential for future decisions giving more discretion to state governments to regulate the availability of abortion services within a state. Women residing in states where abortion services have been curtailed by state legislation may either forgo an abortion or travel to other states to obtain a legal abortion. The increased travel cost is likely to reduce the use of abortion services. Many past studies have found that increased availability and use of abortion services in the U.S. is associated with improved infant health. However, at least one study [Frank et al. 1989] concludes that abortion availability does not improve infant health. Our infant health production function model will seek to clarify the effects of abortion by more completely modeling its role in infant health outcomes. A multi-equation econometric model is used to estimate the model using state-level data for the period 1979-86. We also develop estimates of the likelihood of state action on abortion. These estimates are used to map for each state the likely change in travel costs for pregnant women to obtain abortion services. With past estimates of the responsiveness of abortion demand to travel cost, the decline in the use of abortion services attributable to state action is estimated. The estimated change in the use of abortion can then be used to simulate the potential effects on infant health of state abortion regulation. This information can inform the abortion policy making process as it pertains to regulation regarding: 1) the costs of abortion regulation in terms of infant health (if any); and 2) the identification of the most cost-- effective state actions regarding other inputs that could be used to offset any adverse affects of abortion regulation on infant health.