Modelling aggregate demand-side flexibility in distribution networks with electrified heat and transport

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This project aims to model demand-side flexibility coming from aggregation of a largenumber of residential and small and medium-size commercial end-users in the distribution network (DN). Thealgorithms developed through this project will facilitate more flexible operation of the DN by assessing the timevarying capacity available from flexible loads, in response to flexible services currently procured by thedistribution system operator (DSO), namely: Sustain, Secure, Dynamic and Restore. The aggregate flexibility willbe described as the amount of available capacity and its duration, as a result of aggregating individual loads withdifferent operating modes, start times, maximum deferral times, etc., driven by the end-users' daily behaviourand constrained by their comfort. Such flexibility profiling, corresponding to that of larger flexible resourcesalready employed in practice (e.g., distributed generators or storage), will make provision of multiple flexibleservices accessible to small and medium-size end-users. This will result in increased flexibility of the DN as awhole. Furthermore, harnessing flexibility potential of residential and commercial users would have significantenvironmental implications, as these contribute to a large share to both, electrical usage and global greenhousegas emissions. The findings of the project could be further complemented with smart meter data to developtariffs and incentives for residential and commercial users, supporting more coordinated procurement offlexibility by reducing uncertainty of efficiency and outcome of the demand response (DR) programmes.The main beneficiaries of the research would be DSOs, aggregators and other DR responsible parties at the DNlevel. The question of flexibility modelling is not only important for reporting DR potential at the demand side(commonly, an aggregator's role), but also for more confident estimation of the outcome of DR programmes, tariff design and flexibility assessment, which are highly relevant to DSOs. One of the main benefits for DSOsbrought by this project would be in supporting decision making when investing into incentives and infrastructureallowing network-wide control of flexible loads.