Seismic Resilience of Egypt's Built Environment: A GIS-Based Framework for Assessment and Mitigation (Egypt-SeReAM)

埃及建筑环境的抗震能力：基于 GIS 的评估和缓解框架 (Egypt-SeReAM)

• 批准号: EP/Y000900/1
• 负责人: Ahmed Elkady
• 金额: $ 17.01万
• 依托单位: University of Southampton
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FY000900%2F1
• 关键词: Seismic; Resilience; Egypt; Built; Environment

Natural disasters can have dire effects on countries, in the form of human casualties/injuries, infrastructure damage, economic and environmental losses. Earthquakes, in particular, are the most damaging as they are responsible for an annual death toll of over 20K and 20% of the total annual economic losses due to natural disasters. In low-income or developing countries, earthquake impacts are exacerbated, leading to substantial human loss, injuries, homelessness, and population displacement. Irreparable infrastructure damage can also have a great economic impact reaching 20% of a country's gross domestic income, leading to disruption of economic growth and development.Acknowledging this problem, there has been growing national interest in assessing regional seismic risk and loss for major cities. Several countries initiated Disaster Risk Management (DRM) programs which make use of the interdisciplinary advances in science and technology to model the complex interaction of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability and compute loss metrics that can be used by stakeholders and decision-makers to quantify of potential structural, economic, and social consequences, identify critical infrastructure components, outline pre-disaster damage mitigation measures and policies, and planning for post-disaster response protocols.Egypt, a lower-income country and one of Africa's most populated countries, is highly susceptible to the impacts of natural hazards (flooding, rising sea levels, and earthquakes). Several major cities, with populations larger than 5M and overly populated urban centers, are subject to high seismic risk triggered by risk drives such as poverty, climate change, decades of poor construction practices, and absence of municipal oversight. Countries with similar urban conditions, such as Albania and Turkey, experienced a wide extent of damage and losses from recent earthquakes. These countries, and others, allocate extensive funding and resources for DRM. On the other hand, the safety and robustness of Egypt's infrastructure is greatly under-researched. Although several studies investigated the seismic hazard for Egypt's major cities, no attention has been paid so far to either collapse risk assessment or loss and damage estimations (urban exposure, vulnerabilities, and resilience).Egypt-SeReAM will build on and further develop existing DRM methodologies to create such a digital framework for assessing the seismic resilience of Egypt's vulnerable built environment. A partnership between the University of Southampton, three of Egypt's top academic and research institutions will undertake this project combining different disciplines spanning urban planning, seismology, and structural engineering. The project will use the city of Alexandria as a pilot case study to establish the building blocks of the DRM framework concerned with built-environment resilience. The seismic vulnerability of Alexandria's urban center will be assessed, in terms of human, structural, and economic losses due to potential damage to the residential building stock. In the process, spatial urban, geotechnical, structural, and hazard data will be collected and an automated digital framework will be developed to quantify risk and loss under potential earthquake scenarios. The project will employ the geographic information system (GIS) mapping system to describe and communicate the earthquake consequences to the government, academia, industry, and public sectors. This will be packaged within an easily-to-use practice-oriented digital workflow that will assist authorities in making effective decisions for seismic protection measures to minimize potential damage and losses (primarily human, but financial as well) in future earthquakes. Through networking, training, and showcasing activities, the project will promote and specifically target Egypt's short- and long-term resilience to natural disasters, in support of its economic development.

自然灾害会以人员伤亡、基础设施破坏、经济和环境损失的形式对国家产生可怕的影响。特别是地震，是最具破坏性的，因为它们每年造成2万多人死亡，占自然灾害造成的年度经济损失总额的20%。在低收入或发展中国家，地震的影响加剧，导致大量人员伤亡、无家可归和人口流离失所。不可修复的基础设施损坏也可能产生巨大的经济影响，可达一个国家国内总收入的20%，导致经济增长和发展中断。认识到这个问题，国家对评估主要城市的区域地震风险和损失越来越感兴趣。若干国家启动了灾害风险管理方案，利用科学和技术的跨学科进展，对危害、暴露和脆弱性之间复杂的相互作用进行建模，并计算损失指标，供利益攸关方和决策者量化潜在的结构、经济和社会后果，确定关键基础设施组成部分，概述灾前减轻损害的措施和政策，制定灾后应对方案。埃及是一个低收入国家，也是非洲人口最多的国家之一，极易受到自然灾害（洪水、海平面上升和地震）的影响。一些人口超过500万的大城市和人口过多的城市中心，由于贫困、气候变化、数十年的不良建筑实践和缺乏市政监督等风险驱动因素，面临着很高的地震风险。城市条件类似的国家，如阿尔巴尼亚和土耳其，在最近的地震中遭受了大范围的破坏和损失。这些国家和其他国家为DRM分配了大量资金和资源。另一方面，对埃及基础设施的安全性和稳健性的研究还远远不够。尽管有几项研究调查了埃及主要城市的地震危险，但迄今为止，还没有人注意到倒塌风险评估或损失和损害估计（城市暴露、脆弱性和恢复力）。Egypt- seream将建立并进一步发展现有的DRM方法，以创建这样一个数字框架，用于评估埃及脆弱建筑环境的地震恢复能力。南安普顿大学和埃及三所顶尖的学术和研究机构将合作开展这个项目，结合城市规划、地震学和结构工程等不同学科。该项目将以亚历山大市为试点案例研究，建立与建筑环境弹性相关的DRM框架的构建模块。将对亚历山大市中心的地震脆弱性进行评估，从人员、结构和经济损失的角度来看，由于住宅建筑存量的潜在破坏。在此过程中，将收集城市空间、岩土工程、结构和灾害数据，并开发一个自动化数字框架，以量化潜在地震情景下的风险和损失。该项目将采用地理信息系统（GIS）制图系统，向政府、学术界、工业界和公共部门描述和传达地震后果。这将被打包在一个易于使用的以实践为导向的数字工作流程中，这将有助于当局制定有效的地震保护措施决策，以最大限度地减少未来地震中的潜在损害和损失（主要是人员损失，也包括经济损失）。通过网络、培训和展示活动，该项目将促进并专门针对埃及对自然灾害的短期和长期抵御能力，以支持其经济发展。