NewEconStats: National Accounts via Everyday Financial Transactions: Economic Statistics for the XXI Century

国内生产总值（GDP）及其组成部分-消费，投资，对外贸易和政府支出-是现代社会的基本统计数据。它们是评估不同时间和不同国家经济表现的主要方式，并为最重要的财政和货币政策提供信息。因此，可靠、详细和及时的GDP指标具有重大的社会意义。尽管如此，即使在最发达的经济体，国家统计机构在编制国民经济账户方面也面临着重大制约。传统的方法是对家庭和公司进行调查，这既费时又费钱，而且所涉及的样本有限。在过去的十年里，经济学家们越来越多地推测，大型私人银行数字数据库中记录的日常金融交易可能有助于填补测量空白。NewEconStats将使用研究人员目前可获得的世界上最大的私人持有的金融交易数据集来实现这一想法。它将建立在我目前与BBVA的合作基础上，BBVA是一家总资产排名前50位的全球银行，也是西班牙第二大银行。该项目将访问西班牙对外银行在西班牙的个人和企业账户，以建立高质量的家庭消费、投资、外贸和最终GDP指标。这将是从日常金融交易中建立全面国民账户的第一次尝试，具有巨大的社会潜力。数据的规模将使该项目远远超出目前的调查，并使每天对狭隘的地理、人口和收入群体的产出进行计量成为可能。该项目的主要产出将是一套计量算法，以便在统计机构能够获得类似数据的任何国家进行类似的构建。该项目得到了西班牙和英国国家统计局的支持。

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components-consumption, investment, foreign trade, and government spending-are fundamental statistics in modern societies. They are the main way that economic performance is evaluated across time and across countries and inform most important fiscal and monetary policies. Reliable, detailed, and timely measures of GDP are therefore of great social importance. Despite this, even in the most advanced economies national statistical agencies face important constraints in producing national economic accounts. The traditional method uses surveys of households and firms, which are time consuming and costly to run and limited in the samples they reach. In the past decade, economists have increasingly speculated that everyday financial transactions recorded in the digital databases of large private banks could help fill the measurement gap.NewEconStats will use the largest privately held financial transaction dataset in the world currently available to researchers to operationalize this idea. It will build on my current collaboration with BBVA, a top-50 global bank by total assets and the second largest bank in Spain. The project will access the universe of BBVA accounts in Spain, both individual and corporate, to build high quality measures for household consumption, investment, foreign trade and, ultimately, GDP. This will be the first attempt to build fully-fledged national accounts from everyday financial transactions and has enormous social potential. The scale of the data will allow the project to go well beyond current surveys and make feasible the measurement of output at a daily frequency across narrow geographic, demographic, and income groups. The main output of the project will be a set of measurement algorithms that will allow for similar constructions in any country where a statistical agency has access to similar data. The project is supported by both the Spanish and UK national statistical offices.