Peacekeeping Dividends and Post-conflict Development (Dividends)

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This project breaks new ground in examining peacekeeping dividends across a broad set ofoutcomes, evaluating policies that best leverage positive externalities of peacekeeping, bridgingresearch on short-term peacekeeping and long-term peacebuilding objectives and large-Ncomparative and case studies. It will transform our understanding of post-conflict reconstructionand long-term sustainable development. Building on my previous work showing how UnitedNations peacekeeping and the successful provision of security can have broader dividends, withimprovements in maternal health and education in Africa, I will examine if peacekeeping effortsscale and if we can discern broader dividends on post-conflict reconstruction, including successfulstate-building. I conceptualise peacekeeping dividends as outcomes exceeding expected orprojected baselines - contrasting with conflict traps, where the cost of conflict leads to outcomesthat remain below expected trajectories. The project develops an new systematic Peace DividendMatrix, where observed and expected outcomes are compared across three dimensions: 1) humandevelopment; 2) political inclusion and gender equality; 3) governmental capacity. This ambitiousresearch project looks beyond traditional security objectives, relating the quality of peace anddevelopment to changes in security. It develops generalisable insights beyond UN peacekeeping,using rigorous methodologies, and considering future trends. Whereas the end of the Cold War ledto a surge of UN peacekeeping missions, the current "new" Cold War between the permanent fiveUN Security Council members leaves less scope for UN peacekeeping. I start with evidence fromthe UN and examine to what extent the causal mechanisms also apply to other organisationsengaging in peacekeeping, i.e. the European Union and the African Union. The analyses combinecomparative analyses of historical data, case studies, and simulations of future scenarios.