Peacekeeping Dividends and Post-conflict Development (Dividends)

维持和平红利与冲突后发展（红利）

• 批准号: EP/Y029674/1
• 负责人: Theodora-Ismene Gizelis
• 金额: $ 266.59万
• 依托单位: University of Essex
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FY029674%2F1
• 关键词: Peacekeeping; Dividends; Post; conflict; Development

This project breaks new ground in examining peacekeeping dividends across a broad set ofoutcomes, evaluating policies that best leverage positive externalities of peacekeeping, bridgingresearch on short-term peacekeeping and long-term peacebuilding objectives and large-Ncomparative and case studies. It will transform our understanding of post-conflict reconstructionand long-term sustainable development. Building on my previous work showing how UnitedNations peacekeeping and the successful provision of security can have broader dividends, withimprovements in maternal health and education in Africa, I will examine if peacekeeping effortsscale and if we can discern broader dividends on post-conflict reconstruction, including successfulstate-building. I conceptualise peacekeeping dividends as outcomes exceeding expected orprojected baselines - contrasting with conflict traps, where the cost of conflict leads to outcomesthat remain below expected trajectories. The project develops an new systematic Peace DividendMatrix, where observed and expected outcomes are compared across three dimensions: 1) humandevelopment; 2) political inclusion and gender equality; 3) governmental capacity. This ambitiousresearch project looks beyond traditional security objectives, relating the quality of peace anddevelopment to changes in security. It develops generalisable insights beyond UN peacekeeping,using rigorous methodologies, and considering future trends. Whereas the end of the Cold War ledto a surge of UN peacekeeping missions, the current "new" Cold War between the permanent fiveUN Security Council members leaves less scope for UN peacekeeping. I start with evidence fromthe UN and examine to what extent the causal mechanisms also apply to other organisationsengaging in peacekeeping, i.e. the European Union and the African Union. The analyses combinecomparative analyses of historical data, case studies, and simulations of future scenarios.

该项目在研究一系列广泛成果的维和红利、评估最能利用维和积极外部性的政策、衔接短期维和和长期建设和平目标研究以及大型比较研究和案例研究方面开辟了新路。它将改变我们对冲突后重建和长期可持续发展的理解。我之前的工作展示了联合国维持和平和成功提供安全如何能够通过改善非洲孕产妇保健和教育产生更广泛的红利，在此基础上，我将研究维和努力是否具有规模，以及我们是否能够在冲突后重建（包括成功的国家建设）中发现更广泛的红利。我将维和红利定义为超出预期或预计基线的结果——与冲突陷阱形成对比，冲突的成本导致的结果仍低于预期轨迹。该项目开发了一个新的系统性和平红利矩阵，其中观察到的结果和预期的结果在三个方面进行比较：1)人类发展；2)政治包容与性别平等；3)政府能力。这个雄心勃勃的研究项目超越了传统的安全目标，将和平与发展的质量与安全的变化联系起来。它采用严格的方法，并考虑到未来的趋势，提出了超越联合国维和行动的一般性见解。冷战的结束导致了联合国维和行动的激增，而目前联合国安理会五个常任理事国之间的“新”冷战使联合国维和行动的空间更小。我从联合国的证据开始，研究因果机制在多大程度上也适用于参与维和的其他组织，即欧盟和非洲联盟。这些分析结合了历史数据的比较分析、案例研究和未来情景的模拟。