Maximising the Use of Existing Administrative Data Sets for Wales through Computer Modelling and Simulation

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The first task to undertake will be to consult with the other stakeholders and to discuss which administrative data sets need to be considered as demonstration projects. It is envisaged that at least two projects will be developed within the length of the fellowship but there may be others if time allows. The number of projects completed will depend on the availability and quality of the data and the amount of modelling required. The choice of demonstration project will also depend on which policy requirements are identified by the Welsh Government. For example, two projects which have already had strong policy requirements identified are (1) a study of cardiac surgery scheduling, and (2) modelling future social care systems. I envisage that this area of the project will be driven by key personnel in WAG and HMC2 who will have a clear idea about which projects they want to develop. The next stage is to see whether the data is usable or if additional data needs to be acquired. The provision of further data sets to HMC2 would need to be negotiated. Any information relating to the administrative data would be documented ready for its inclusion in the relevant "key findings" report. The next step will be to review possible computer model and simulation techniques that can be used. Computer models and simulation allow whole systems to be modelled in a computer environment, and "what-if" scenarios to be run which help as an aid to decision making. For example, a computer model can be developed which represents the number of patients awaiting cardiac surgery in a particular hospital. The model can be used to see what happens if more beds are added to the ward or if the theatre availability changes. The modelling techniques that are likely to be used are System Dynamics (SD) and Discrete Event Simulation (DES), both of which have been used significantly in healthcare modelling (HIV, TB, and optimising hospital resources). System Dynamics is a way of modelling very complex systems. It is deterministic in nature and relies on feedback loops and time delays which affect the whole system. SD can deliver a wealth of qualitative and quantitative output, particularly at policy level. In Discrete Event Simulation the system is modelled as a sequence of events where each event happens at a specific time and causes a change in the system. DES is stochastic in nature and allows different events to occur within the system according to chance, therefore capturing the uncertainty of the modelled system. The models developed are typically very visual which helps communicate the findings to a non-mathematical audience. The choice of method will be driven by the data and complexity of the system under investigation. Through my work at the Veterinary Laboratories Agency and my PhD, I have almost eight years' experience of developing computer and simulation models which I will draw upon to develop the models for the demonstration projects (England et al (2004), Jones et al (2004) and England (1997)).Once the computer model and simulation techniques have been reviewed and discussed with experts within the School of Mathematics and HMC2, the models for the demonstration projects will be developed, tested and validated to ensure that they are an accurate representation of the systems being considered. The chosen models will be documented and explained to the other stakeholders. Finally, the "key findings" and technical reports for each project will be completed and presented to the main stakeholders in this project. Conclusions and future work will be discussed along with how the available data can be used for other purposes, and how the methodology can be applied to other areas or feed into the other fellowships. It is also hoped that any findings from the fellowship can be written up and submitted to Operational Research or other suitable journals.