Migration and the Reshaping of Consumption Patterns

在过去的三十年里，中国的国内人口迁移迅速增加。在20世纪70年代末开始的改革的推动下，历史上最大的劳动力流动开始发生，大量个人暂时离开农村地区，在更好的经济条件吸引下到城市地区工作。大迁徙不仅是中国近代经济模式的一个重要方面，而且在国际背景下也发挥着至关重要的作用。过去几十年，中国劳动力从农业部门转移到以出口为导向的制造业和城市地区的第三产业，从而维持了全球需求的很大一部分。与此同时，向欧洲的国际移民在过去二十年中一直在增长，这也是由于与发展中国家日益加强的经济一体化所引发的。尤其是海外华人一直在增长，许多年轻有才华的中国移民前往法国、英国和德国等国，在欧洲通常供不应求的学科领域继续接受教育。在此背景下，我们提出的项目旨在调查移民如何重塑移民和其他受移民间接影响的个人的消费模式，特别关注消费不平等方面的影响。我们的重点是中国的大移民和在欧盟的中国侨民。虽然有大量研究分析了移民对劳动力市场结果的影响，但缺乏关于消费、消费行为和消费不平等如何受到移民影响的系统证据。我们的目标是通过回答以下三个研究问题来填补这一空白：a)大迁徙对消费模式的影响是什么？b)制度、人口变化与消费行为之间的关系是什么？c)人口迁移是否导致了消费规范的转移？研究表明，消费是获取永久收入的理想指标，因此可以预测长期经济状况。在第一个研究问题中，我们重点研究移民如何影响移民之前、期间和之后的消费，以及受移民间接影响的个人（留守家庭和城市居民）的消费。随着中国人口老龄化和劳动年龄人口的减少，许多人将不得不调整自己的行为，即他们目前可以消费多少，应该为未来消费储蓄多少。住房是一项关键资产，预计将受到这种权衡的影响。我们的第二个研究问题是调查移民与住房需求和房价之间的关系，以及住房如何影响剩余商品的消费。我们致力于研究第三个问题，以了解移民是否以及如何导致消费规范从目的地转移到派遣地区。在城市生活的农民工越来越多地接触到城市的生活方式，吸收城市居民的消费行为。同样，许多年轻的中国移民在长期居住期间了解了欧洲的价值观和规范，这种接触可能会通过使用新技术、媒体和社交网络，决定消费行为向中国的转移。我们研究的最终目标是为政策提供信息，了解移民如何影响消费行为和消费不平等，从而预防差异和社会不稳定，并在促进增长和增加福祉的程度上促进消费。

Internal migration in China has rapidly increased in the past thirty years. Fuelled by the reforms initiated at the end of 1970s, the largest move of labour force in history started taking place, with an enormous amount of individuals temporarily leaving rural areas to work in urban areas attracted by better economic conditions. Not only the Great Migration is an important aspect of the recent economic paradigm of China, but is also playing a crucial role in the international context. A large share of the global demand over the past decades has been sustained by the shift of the Chinese labour force out of the agricultural sector into the export-oriented manufacturing and tertiary sectors in urban areas. On parallel, international migration to Europe has been growing in the past twenty years, also triggered by increasing economic integration with developing countries. In particular the Chinese diaspora has been growing, with many young talented Chinese migrants moving to countries such as France, the UK and Germany to further their education in disciplines in which Europe typically has a scarce supply. In this context, our proposed project aims at investigating how migration reshapes the consumption patterns of migrants and other individuals indirectly affected by migration, with particular attention to implications in terms of consumption inequality. Our focus is on both the Great Migration in China and the Chinese diaspora in the EU. While there is a wealth of studies analysing the consequences of migration on labour market outcomes, systematic evidence is missing on how consumption, consumption behaviour and consumption inequality are affected by migration. We aim at filling this gap by answering the following three research questions: a) What is the impact of the Great Migration on consumption patterns? b) What are the relationships between institutions, population change and consumption behaviour? c) Does migration lead to the transfer of consumption norms? Research shows that consumption is an ideal measure for capturing permanent income and thus for predicting long-run economic well-being. In the first research question we focus on studying how migration affects consumption of migrants before, during and after migration, as well as consumption of individuals who are indirectly affected by migration (family left behind and urban residents). With the ageing of the population and the shrinking of the working-age population in China many individuals will have to adapt their behaviour in terms of how much they can currently consume and how much should be saved for future consumption. Housing is a key asset that is expected to be affected by such a trade-off. Our second research question investigates what migration has to do with housing demand and housing prices, as well as how housing affects the consumption of remaining goods. We devote the third research question to understand whether and how migration leads to a transfer of consumption norms from destination to sending areas. Migrant workers living in urban areas are increasingly exposed to the city life style, absorbing the consumption behaviour of urban residents. Similarly, many young Chinese migrants learn about European values and norms during their permanence, and such exposure is likely to determine a transfer of consumption behaviour back to China, channelled through the use of new technology, media and social networks. The ultimate goal of our research is to inform policy about how migration can affect consumption behaviour and consumption inequality, so that disparities and social instability can be prevented, and consumption - to the extent that it promotes growth and increases well-being - can be fostered.