SOCIOECONOMIC AND POLICY INFLUENCE ON FERTILITY DECLINE

社会经济和政策对生育率下降的影响

• 批准号: 3857816
• 负责人: JULIE DAVANZO
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 至
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3857816
• 关键词: Indonesia; Malaysia; decision making; education cost /financing; employment of women; family structure /dynamics; fertility; grandparent; household; human mortality; human subject; longitudinal human study; politics; social change; socioeconomics; statistics /biometry

The proposed research will investigate the social, economic, and policy influences on the long-run declines in fertility in Indonesia and Peninsular Malaysia, with special attention to the relative roles of socioeconomic change and of public programs and policies. Although these two countries have some important cultural similarities, by most demographic and economic measures they are at very different stages of socioeconomic development. Surprisingly, however, the current levels and historical patterns of fertility in these two countries are very similar. The proposed work will use the long time span of household-level information available in the Malaysian Family Life Surveys (MFLS) and the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) to assess the relative contributions to fertility decline of changes in income, mortality rates, earnings opportunities of women, the cost and availability of education, and access to efficient methods of fertility regulation. The analysis will also explicitly investigate intergenerational influences on fertility, which have received attention in some theoretical models, but have received very little attention in empirical studies. The rich MFLS and IFLS micro-level data on demographic, social, and economic variables on more than one generation allow empirical testing of the implications of these intergenerational models. The juxtaposition of the experiences of these two countries that have experienced extensive socioeconomic change over time will allow us to observe how differences in the path or rate of change in demographic and economic conditions influence fertility at comparable levels of development.

拟议的研究将调查社会、经济和政策 对印度尼西亚和印度生育率长期下降的影响 马来西亚半岛，特别注意 社会经济变化以及公共方案和政策的变化。尽管这些 大多数情况下，两国有一些重要的文化相似之处。 人口和经济指标处于非常不同的阶段 社会经济发展。然而，令人惊讶的是，目前的水平和 这两个国家的生育率历史模式非常相似。 拟议的工作将使用家庭层面的长时间跨度 马来西亚家庭生活调查(MFLS)和 印尼家庭生活调查(IFLS)评估相对贡献 到生育率下降的收入、死亡率、收入的变化 妇女的机会、教育的费用和可获得性以及机会 到有效的生育调节方法。 分析还将明确调查代际影响。 在一些理论模型中受到关注的生育率，但 在实证研究中受到的关注很少。富有的MFLS 和IFLS关于人口、社会和经济变量的微观数据 不止一代人允许对以下因素的影响进行经验测试 这些代际模式。两人的经历并列在一起 这两个国家经历了广泛的社会经济变革 随着时间的推移，我们将能够观察到 人口和经济条件的变化影响生育率 可比的发展水平。