Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus (CECAN)

由于人们日益认识到政策和政策执行的复杂性，中非经济合作中心在能源、粮食、水和环境（“关系”）政策评价方面进行了创新。CECAN开发并扩展了政策评估方法，在研究人员、评估从业者、政策制定者和分析人员之间建立了基于案例研究的合作生产，并发展了一种灵活的、问题驱动的方式来运行一个多机构、多学科的中心。虽然已经产生了高影响力的工作（见第3部分：迄今为止的主要产出和影响），但CECAN开始带来的那种转变是不可能在30个月内实现的。CECAN 2是对以往成就的巩固，是对第一阶段取得的见解和英国面临的新挑战的回应。这将使中心能够发展和实施其创新、知识交流和合作生产，以实现长期可持续经营的目标。第二届中非合作伙伴会议特别及时，因为若干驱动因素同时出现，使复杂的适当的评价和评价方法变得更加重要。英国脱欧是英国几十年来最复杂的政策和监管变化，对权力下放国家之间可能日益分化的关系产生了相关影响。“大数据”的问题，包括其机遇和风险，很少远离新闻，因此未来的一个关键挑战是跨政府部门和部门的数据链接，特别是在公私合作伙伴关系和混合模式的背景下。间接和意想不到的影响越来越多地在整个Nexus中显现出来：例如，农村基础设施的退化对环境（汽车运输增加）和健康/福祉（更加孤立和孤独）都产生了不利后果。迫切需要更大规模和更长期的方法来考虑政策的累积影响和跨部门的“连锁”效应。最后，公共和私营部门的决策都将受到日益增加的自动化的严重影响，目前对治理的影响尚不清楚。目前的政府管理程序没有很好地应对这些多重挑战，迫切需要在其中更多地嵌入评价和复杂性思维。CECAN 2旨在确保与我们合作的从业者和政策制定者具备最佳方法来应对未来的复杂性。为CECAN 2设想的工作分为五个方面：1 .探索适合复杂性的评估方法在整个政策周期中的贡献。2: CECAN方法创新实验室：通过探索各种新方法和新兴方法，提供适合复杂性的评估方法的创新。3：在现实世界中测试和完善适合复杂性的评估方法，以共同产生解决方案，以应对政策制定和分析中的复杂性所带来的评估挑战。5 .确保中经协的未来，利用ESRC的中心过渡基金深化现有的伙伴关系，建立新的伙伴关系，为中经协的工作提供替代和长期的资金支持。

Responding to the increasing recognition of complexity of policy and policy implementation, CECAN produced innovation in policy evaluation for policies relating to energy, food, water and the environment (the 'Nexus'). CECAN developed and extended methods for policy evaluation, established case study based co-production between researchers, evaluation practitioners, policy makers and analysts and evolved an agile, problem driven way of running a multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary centre. While having produced high impact work (see Part 3: Key outputs and impacts to date), the kind of transformation CECAN set out to bring about is not achievable in 30 months. CECAN 2 is a consolidation of previous achievements, and a response to insights gained in the first phase and to new challenges faced by the UK. It will allow the Centre to develop and implement its innovations, knowledge exchange and co-production, with the goal of operating sustainably in the long term. CECAN 2 is particularly timely as a number of drivers are coinciding to make complexity appropriate approaches to appraisal and evaluation ever more vital. Brexit is the most complex policy and regulatory change in the UK for decades, with associated impacts on the potentially increasingly divergent relationship between the devolved nations. The issue of "big data", both its opportunities and risks, is rarely far from the news, so a key future challenge is data linkage across Government departments and sectors, particularly in the context of public-private partnerships and hybrid models. Indirect and unintended effects are increasingly being demonstrated across the Nexus: for example, declines in rural infrastructure have adverse consequences for both the environment (more car transport) and health/wellbeing (more isolation and loneliness). Larger-scale and longer-term approaches are urgently needed to account for the cumulative impact of policies and "knock-on" effects across sectors. Finally, decision-making in both the public and private sector will be severely impacted by increasing automation, with currently unknown consequences for governance. Current Government management processes are not well-equipped to deal with these multiple challenges and urgently need to have evaluation and complexity thinking more embedded within them. CECAN 2 aims to ensure that the practitioners and policy-makers we engage with are equipped with the best methods to negotiate this future complexity . The work envisaged for CECAN 2 is organised into five streams:1: Exploring the contribution that complexity-appropriate evaluation methods can make across the full policy cycle. 2: CECAN Methods Innovation Lab: delivering innovation in complexity-appropriate evaluation methods by exploration of the full range of new and emerging methods.3: Real world testing and refining of complexity-appropriate evaluation methods to co-produce solutions to the evaluation challenges posed by complexity in policy making and analysis.4: Building individual and institutional capacity to deliver complexity-appropriate policy analysis 5: Securing CECAN's future, using ESRC's Centre Transition Funding to deepen existing partnerships and build new ones to secure alternative and long-term funding for CECAN's work.