Creating a Progressive Canada-UK Free Trade Agreement: Gaining Civil Support in a Post-Brexit World

这项研究全面评估了在英国退欧后的背景下加强对包容和进步的加拿大-英国自贸协定的支持的战略。加拿大和联合王国(英国)从富有成效的商业关系中繁荣起来。2016年，两国双向商品贸易总额超过253亿加元，使英国成为加拿大第五大商品贸易伙伴，加拿大成为英国在欧盟以外的第八大出口市场。英国是加拿大第二大外国直接投资来源地，也是加拿大第二大对外直接投资目的地。英国脱欧让两国关系的未来变得不确定。加拿大出口发展局(EDC)、加拿大商业发展银行(BDC)和加拿大皇家银行(RBC)等多家贸易和金融机构指出，英国退欧可能会影响加拿大的出口和投资。由于英国进入欧盟的市场准入存在不确定性，退欧可能会降低英国作为加拿大投资目的地的吸引力。此外，英国退欧可能导致加拿大出口商面临与加拿大-欧盟全面经济贸易协定(CETA)之前相同的关税结构。这将增加做生意的成本，特别是对加拿大服务出口商来说。出于这些原因，加拿大企业可能会将更多业务转向欧盟。对加拿大和英国未来关系至关重要的是新的加拿大-英国自由贸易协定(FTA)的可能性。一个需要分析的问题是，为什么对深化经济一体化的反应越来越强烈。理解为什么自由贸易协定达不到社会期望也是有用的。谁是自由贸易的输家，谁反对自由贸易和全球化？这项研究确定了可以采取的不同包容努力，以加强对加拿大-英国自由贸易协定的支持。我们的提案确定了代表民间社会对自由贸易协定的批评的关键领域，这些领域需要在加拿大-英国贸易协定中得到社会支持：1)公平和自由贸易：提供保护环境和社会标准的保障措施，包括劳动力调整支持。自由贸易协定中可以嵌入的最有效的规则、教育和再培训计划是什么？2)有效的消费者保护：包括消费者机构之间的合作，以确保消费者感受到和理解自由贸易协定的好处，特别是弱势或被边缘化的消费者。3)精明的政府采购政策：购买国家条款已成为政府采购政策中的一种重要形式的保护主义，也是支持和培育当地产业和社区的政策工具。如何设计加拿大-英国自贸协定，以允许政府采购领域的主权，允许物有所值和当地中小企业发展？4)可持续的外国直接投资规则：投资章节和争端解决条款已成为反对现代自贸协定的避雷针。投资者章节向受外国政府影响的企业提供追索权，并经常就重要的监管问题提供非公开和秘密的裁决。投资章节以及争端解决条款也引发了对国家主权的重要担忧。如何设计这些条款，以解决批评者的主要担忧，同时保持投资者信心？5)这些谈判将如何纳入两国地方或下放地区的立场？我们能期待在加拿大-英国自由贸易协定中有类似的地方政府代表吗？爱尔兰、苏格兰、威尔士和英格兰的权力下放地区是否会与加拿大的省份一样拥有独立的代表权？这将对最终协议的一体化水平(深层次或浅层次)产生什么影响？

This research comprehensively assesses strategies to strengthen support for an inclusive and progressive Canada-UK FTA in a post-Brexit context. Canada and the United Kingdom (UK) have prospered from a productive commercial relationship. Their two-way merchandise trade totaled more than C$25.3 billion in 2016, making the UK Canada's fifth-largest merchandise trade partner and making Canada the UK's eighth biggest export market outside the EU. The UK is the second largest source of FDI to Canada and Canada's second most significant destination for FDI abroad. Brexit has made the future of this relationship uncertain. Various trade and financial institutions, such as Export Development Canada (EDC), the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC), and the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) note that Brexit may affect Canadian exports and investments. Brexit could make the UK a less attractive destination for Canadian investment due to uncertainty over the UK's market access to the EU. Further, Brexit could result in Canadian exporters facing the same tariff structure that was in place before the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). This would raise the costs of doing business, particularly for exporters of Canadian services. For these reasons, Canadian businesses may direct more of their business to the EU. Crucial to the future of Canada-UK relations is the possibility of a new Canada-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA). One issue for analysis, is why there is a growing reaction against deeper economic integration. It is also useful to understand why free trade agreements fail to live up to societal expectations. Who are the losers from free trade and who opposes free trade and globalisation? This research identifies different inclusion efforts that could be made to strengthen the support for a Canada-UK FTA. Our proposal identifies key areas that represent civil society's critique of FTAs that need to be addressed in a Canada-UK trade agreement to gain societal support: 1) Fair and free trade: Providing safeguards to protect environment and social standards, including labour adjustment supports. What are the most effective rules, education and re-training programs that can be embedded in an FTA? 2) Effective consumer protection: including cooperation between consumer agencies to ensure the benefits of free trade agreements are felt and understood by consumers, particularly the vulnerable or marginalised. 3) Smart government procurement policy: Buy National clauses have become an important form of protectionism within government procurement policy, as well as a policy tool to support and nurture local industry and communities. How can a Canada-UK FTA be designed to allow sovereignty in the government procurement space, allowing value for money and local SME development? 4) Sustainble FDI rules: investment chapters and dispute settlement provisions have become a lightning rod for opposition to modern FTAs. Investor chapters offer recourse to businesses affected by foreign governments and often provide closed and secret rulings on important regulatory issues. The investment chapters along with dispute settlement provisions also raise important state sovereignty concerns. How can these provisions be designed to address the main concerns of critics, while preserving investor confidence? 5) How will these negotiations incorporate the positions of the sub-national or devolved regions in both countries? Could we expect a similar subnational government representation in a Canada-UK FTA? Would the devolved regions of Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England have independent representation alongside the Canadian provinces? What impact would this have on the integration level (deep or shallow) of the final agreement?