Explaining economic growth and structural transformation in Kenya: a political settlements and deals approach

自2000年代末以来，人们越来越接受这样一种看法，即发展中国家的经济进程受到政治动态的密切影响。最初，学者和政策制定者试图理解政治在决定经济结果中的作用，只是局限于思考增长需要哪些制度。最近，研究认为，决定这些结果的不是机构本身，而是决定它们表现的根本权力关系。这些主张甚至开始得到DFID和世界银行等主要捐赠者的认可，后者在其2017年世界发展报告中表示。该奖学金的目的是推动这些关于发展政治的辩论。为此，这位研究人员将利用他的博士论文，该论文包含了一个创新的框架，用于理解发展中国家经济发展的政治驱动因素，并应用于肯尼亚的案例。这位研究人员使用了一种混合的方法，结合了定量分析、档案研究和对政界人士、政府官员和企业的128次采访，对肯尼亚的经济轨迹构建了比迄今文献提供的更令人信服的描述，并对五个关键行业(园艺、服装、银行、电信、石油)的发展进行了新的描述。研究人员现在将利用这一奖学金提供的资源和支持，最大限度地提高他的研究的学术和非学术影响。活动的中心焦点将是至少三篇论文，提交给高影响力的期刊。这些研究将探索塑造肯尼亚园艺、银行和石油行业的政治动态，基于这位研究人员已经分别在非洲事务和世界发展上发表并接受审查的两篇论文，这两篇论文是关于肯尼亚服装和移动货币产业的影响因素排名第一的期刊。研究人员将访问华盛顿特区的约翰·霍普金斯大学，在那里，他受到著名的高级国际研究学院非洲项目主任彼得·刘易斯的邀请，介绍他的研究。这不仅将增加研究人员博士论文的学术影响力，还将使他能够与从事类似领域工作的学者建立网络，并确定合作机会。在美国期间，这位研究人员将利用他的导师在美国国际开发署、世界银行、卡内基研究所和全球发展中心的人脉，向相关的政策听众介绍政策。研究人员还将访问德国经济发展研究所(DIE)，在那里，他受到了DIE可持续经济和社会发展部门负责人蒂尔曼·阿尔滕伯格的公开邀请，他热衷于在DIE的规划中融入更多的政治分析。鉴于DIE是世界上最有影响力的发展机构之一，这为增加研究人员博士论文的政策影响力提供了一个重要机会。第三次访问将前往肯尼亚，向各种学术和非学术受众传播研究成果，并与其交流知识。这些活动将包括内罗毕大学和英国东非研究所等学术机构的活动，以及肯尼亚制造商协会、肯尼亚银行家协会和生鲜农产品出口商协会等有影响力的商业协会的活动，这些协会都表示有兴趣听取研究人员的发现。最后，无论何时在英国，研究人员都会与那里的学术和非学术受众接触。这位研究人员将参加著名的学术会议和研讨会，并与DFID、海外发展研究所、查塔姆研究所和非洲/肯尼亚跨党派议会团体的政策导向受众接触，他的导师在这些团体中有很强的人脉。

There has been an increasing acceptance since the late-2000s that economic processes in developing countries are closely shaped by political dynamics. Initially, attempts by academics and policymakers to understand the role of politics in determining economic outcomes were confined to thinking about what institutions were required for growth. More recently, research has argued it is not institutions per se that determine such outcomes, but the underlying power relations that shape their performance. These claims are even starting to be recognised by major donors like DFID and the World Bank, the latter in its 2017 World Development report.The aim of this fellowship is to further these debates on the politics of development. To do so, the researcher will draw on his PhD thesis, which contained an innovative framework for understanding the political drivers of economic development in developing countries, applied to the case of Kenya. Utilising a mixed methods approach combining quantitative analysis, archival research and 128 interviews with politicians, state officials and businesses, the researcher constructed a more convincing account of Kenya's economic trajectory than that offered by the literature to date, as well as new accounts for the development of five key industries (horticulture, garments, banking, telecommunications, oil). The researcher will now make use of the resources and support offered by this fellowship to maximise the academic and non-academic impact of his research.A central focus of activities will be at least three articles for submission to high impact journals. These will explore the political dynamics that have shaped Kenya's horticulture, banking and oil industries, building on two papers the researcher has respectively already published and got under review in African Affairs and World Development, top ranking journals by impact factor, on Kenya's garments and mobile money industries.The researcher will visit John Hopkins University in Washington DC, where he has been invited to present his research by Peter Lewis, the Africa Program Director in its prestigious School of Advanced International Studies. Not only will this increase the academic impact of the researcher's PhD thesis, but it will allow him to network with academics working in similar areas and identify collaborative opportunities. While in the US, the researcher will make use of his mentor's contacts at USAID, World Bank, Carnegie Institute and Centre for Global Development, all of which are also based in Washington, to present to relevant policy audiences.The researcher will also visit the Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE, German Development Institute), where he has an open invite to present from Tilman Altenburg, the head of DIE's Sustainable Econmic and Social Development department, who is keen to integrate more political analysis into DIE's programming. This offers a significant opportunity to increase the policy impact of the researcher's PhD thesis, given DIE is one of the most influential development agencies in the world.A third trip will be undertaken to Kenya to disseminate research findings to, and exchange knowledge with, various academic and non academic audiences. These will include events at academic institutions like Nairobi University and British Institute for Eastern Africa as well as influential business associations like the Kenya Association of Manufacturers, Kenya Bankers Association and Fresh Produce Exporters Assocation, all of whom have expressed an interest in hearing the researcher's findings.Finally, whenever in the UK, the researcher will engage with academic and non-academic audiences there. The researcher will attend prestigious academic conferences and workshops and engage with policy-oriented audiences at DFID, Overseas Development Institute, Chatham House, and the Africa/Kenya all-party parliamentary groups, where his mentor has strong connections.