Expected Value of Information and Synthesis Methods for Research Prioritisation and Study Design

目前，在决定是否采用新的治疗方法用于NHS的方式与决定是否需要对这些治疗方法进行更多研究的方式之间存在差距。因此，资源可能被浪费在研究不可能具有成本效益的治疗方法上，或者通过采用如果收集更多证据就不会具有成本效益的治疗方法。如果收集到更多的证据，可以计算基于当前证据采取治疗的决定将被证明是错误决定的概率，以及这可能代表多少资源浪费和生活质量损失。这些计算提供了一种客观公正的方法，用于决定资助哪些研究以及如何最好地设计这些研究。然而，这些方法是复杂的。该项目旨在找到使计算更容易的方法，以便它们可以更广泛地用于帮助研究资助机构委托研究，这将有助于为NHS中的患者做出更好的治疗决策。

At present there is a gap between the way decisions are made about whether to adopt new treatments for use in the NHS, and the way decisions are made about whether more research is needed on these treatments. As a result, resources may be wasted researching treatments that were never likely to be cost-effective, or by adopting treatments which, if more evidence were collected, would not be cost-effective. It is possible to calculate the probability that a decision to adopt a treatment on the basis of current evidence would turn out to be the wrong decision if more evidence was collected, and how much resource waste and loss of quality of life this is likely to represent. These calculations provide an objective and fair method for informing the decision of which studies to fund, and how best to design those studies. The methods are, however, complex. This project aims to find ways of making the calculations easier so that they can be used more widely to help research funding bodies commission research that will help make better treatment decisions for patients in the NHS.