Expected Value of Information and Synthesis Methods for Research Prioritisation and Study Design

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At present there is a gap between the way decisions are made about whether to adopt new treatments for use in the NHS, and the way decisions are made about whether more research is needed on these treatments. As a result, resources may be wasted researching treatments that were never likely to be cost-effective, or by adopting treatments which, if more evidence were collected, would not be cost-effective. It is possible to calculate the probability that a decision to adopt a treatment on the basis of current evidence would turn out to be the wrong decision if more evidence was collected, and how much resource waste and loss of quality of life this is likely to represent. These calculations provide an objective and fair method for informing the decision of which studies to fund, and how best to design those studies. The methods are, however, complex. This project aims to find ways of making the calculations easier so that they can be used more widely to help research funding bodies commission research that will help make better treatment decisions for patients in the NHS.