Modelling the dynamics of viral load to reveal mechanisms of protection in COVID-19

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Variation in the severity of COVID-19 may be due to differences in how well the immune system fights the virus. The most severe cases have the highest levels of virus, which may be driving such a strong immune response that it damages the body. The virus may have reached high levels because it grew very fast or because the immune system did not respond fast enough or in the right way. We can only find out which parts of the immune response are protective if we know how the levels of virus and immune response influence each other over time. We have previously shown that we can use data from lots of patients to develop a model of how the levels of virus and the immune response interact, and then use this as a framework to estimate how effectively the immune response of each individual is controlling the virus. This then allows us to identify which of the thousands of molecules involved of the immune response are actually responsible for protection. Using data which has already been collected in other studies to develop a similar model for COVID-19, we will identify the protective immune response, leading better treatments and vaccines.