UK - China Initiative to Develop Predictive Multi-Scale Ocean Modelling as a Key Aspect of a Joint Environmental Modelling Centre

中国在解决环境问题方面越来越处于领先地位，随着中国为此目的进行大量投资，这一趋势将继续下去。北京大气物理研究所（IAP）是该领域的国际领先机构，将从这笔额外投资中受益匪浅。伦敦帝国理工学院的应用建模和计算小组（AMCG-ICL）是一个开发下一代方法的环境建模小组。我们提出了一个为期两年的启动项目，在英国和中国进行培训和科学工作，同时进行一系列支持活动，为随后的自我支持（英国和中国的联合基金）“国际研究中心”奠定基础。该中心将结合我们世界领先的技术和人力，加速卓越的研究，提供数值模拟的见解和解决方案，以解决英国和中国的环境问题，这远远超出了英国的能力。相对较小的投资将利用中国过去、现在和未来对IAP的大量投资，以及英国过去对下一代环境流动模型（特别是多尺度海洋模型fluid - icom）的投资。这项合作将开发一个世界领先的预测建模框架。这里资助的启动项目将为培训和合作提供重点，以便将IAP的数据同化方法应用于我们的多尺度海洋模型fluid - icom。新一代海洋-大气模式：地球系统科学的一个重大挑战是在相关的空间和时间尺度的全范围内模拟全球环流。对于气候预测，这意味着要解决盆地尺度和较小尺度的特征，如边界流、混合；化学相互作用和输送，溢流和中尺度涡旋。这样的模拟将远远超出传统海洋和大气模式的能力。现在人们普遍认识到，下一代海洋模型将基于非结构化网格技术，因为目前这是解决沿海地区重要尺度范围的唯一可行方法。正如NERC战略文件“海洋2025 WP9”所确定的那样，非结构化网格海洋模型是未来多尺度海洋到河口和小尺度海洋建模的关键海洋建模技术。在现有的非结构化网格模型中，ICOM-Fluidity是唯一可以使用自适应网格分辨率在所有尺度上模拟流动的模型，因此是开发下一代数据同化模型的理想平台。培训计划的一个成果是，将使用icom -流动性模型来形成中国海的正演模型。将有大量的数据需要同化到模型中，例如卫星、货轮和船舶轨迹。集成卡尔曼滤波EnKF和梯度或基于伴随的数据同化方法将与ICOM-Fluidity一起使用，以提供预测和插值可用数据。支持IAP - AMCG-ICL研究的计划活动：1)培训课程、讲习班和暑期学校。2)博士生，PDRAs和高级工作人员有时间应用（并帮助开发）模型，例如建立英国和中国海模型，开发不确定性，降阶和数据同化方法。3)学术人员和博士生交流。4)在中国和英国设立新的大额资金资助中心。5)加强与英国的联系，并与中国科学院开展进一步的合作。6)正式授予帝国理工学院重要研究人员访问资格

China is increasingly taking the lead in solutions to environmental problems and this will continue as substantial Chinese investment is scheduled for this purpose. The Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in Beijing is an internationally leading organisation in this area and will substantially benefit from this additional investment. The Applied Modelling and Computational Group at Imperial College London (AMCG-ICL) is an environmental modelling group developing next generation methods. We propose a two year starter project with a combination of training and scientific effort in the UK and China synchronized with a range of supporting activities that will build the foundation for a subsequently self supporting (combination of UK and Chinese funds) 'International Research Centre'. The Centre will combine our world leading technologies and manpower to accelerate research excellence and delivery of numerical modelling insights and solutions to grand challenge environmental problems in the UK and China way beyond the capability of the UK alone. A relatively small investment would leverage China's massive past, current and future investments in IAP and past UK investments in next generation environmental flow models (particularly the multi-scale ocean model Fluidity-ICOM). This collaboration will develop a world leading predictive modelling framework. The starter project funded here will provide the focus for the training and collaboration so as to apply IAP's data assimilation methods to our multi-scale ocean model Fluidity-ICOM.Next Generation Ocean-Atmosphere Model: A Grand Challenge in Earth System Science is modelling the global circulation across the full range of relevant spatial and temporal scales. For climate prediction, this means resolving both basin scale and smaller scale features such as boundary currents, mixing; chemical interactions and transport, overflows, and mesoscale eddies. Such simulations will lie well beyond the capability of traditional ocean and atmosphere models. It is now generally recognised that the next generation of ocean models will be based on unstructured mesh technology as currently this is the only feasible way of resolving the important range of scales in coastal regions. As identified by the NERC strategy document 'oceans 2025 WP9', unstructured mesh ocean models are the key ocean modelling technology for the future modelling of multi-scale ocean to estuary and smaller scale modelling. Among existing unstructured mesh models, ICOM-Fluidity is the only model that can be used for simulation of flow on all scales using adaptive mesh resolution and is therefore an ideal platform for the next generation of data assimilation models to be developed on. One result of the training program will be that ICOM-Fluidity will be used to form a forward model of the China Sea. There will be a large amount of data to assimilate into the model e.g. satellite, argo floats and ship tracks. Ensemble Kalman Filter EnKF and gradient or adjoint based data assimilation methods will be used with ICOM-Fluidity to provide forecasts and to interpolate available data.Planned activities that will support the IAP - AMCG-ICL research:1) Training courses, workshops and Summer schools.2) PhD students, PDRAs and senior staff time to apply (and help develop) the model e.g. set up the UK and China sea model and develop uncertainty, reduced order and data assimilation methods.3) Exchanges of academic staff and PhD students.4) Development of a new substantial funding grant in China and the UK to fund the centre.5) Strengthened UK link and development of further initiatives with the Chinese Academy of Sciences.6) Formalised visiting status for key Imperial College researchers