ENSO connections and processes

ENSO 连接和过程

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    NE/J021628/1
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 21.29万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    英国
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2012
  • 资助国家:
    英国
  • 起止时间:
    2012 至 无数据
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the climate system. ENSO events are caused by natural ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific, but their impacts are transmitted globally through so-called teleconnections linking distant areas. Teleconnections act through changes in the atmospheric circulation, and they cause regional climate disturbances that can be very damaging, such as floods and droughts. Although Europe is far from the Pacific centre of action, ENSO is also a factor in UK/Europe climate variability. The ENSO cycle has warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases with largely opposite physical impacts. Recent studies have demonstrated that there is also more than one type of ENSO, depending on location within the equatorial Pacific region, and that teleconnection effects differ from one type to another. Further information about these differing effects, and the underlying processes, is required to improve the prediction of the consequences when an ENSO event arises. The aim of the work in this proposal is to investigate ENSO and teleconnections by (a) analysing data from observations and realistic climate models, with the use of mathematical methods to determine various 'modes' for ENSO evolution and associated atmospheric changes, and by (b) carrying out numerical experiments with simplified atmospheric circulation models to study the dynamical interactions induced by ENSO-like forcing of the system. Although simplified models are less realistic, by reducing the physical mechanisms represented in such models attention can be focussed on particular dynamical processes and causes and effects which are nevertheless relevant to actual climate variability. The simplified model experiments also provide an opportunity to test the strengths and weaknesses of the analysis methods used in (a).The results will help us to understand why teleconnection effects may differ from one ENSO event to another, and how processes in the tropics and extratropics are inter-related. An important potential benefit is that long-range forecast producers will be able to check whether the relevant pathways are properly represented in the systems used to predict ENSO and its impacts: accordingly the Met Office is a partner in this project through the monthly-to-decadal forecast group.
厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)现象是气候系统年与年之间变化的最大来源。厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件是由热带太平洋的自然海洋-大气相互作用引起的,但其影响通过连接遥远地区的所谓遥相关在全球传播。气候关联通过大气环流的变化发挥作用,它们造成区域气候扰动,可能造成严重破坏,如洪水和干旱。虽然欧洲远离太平洋中心,但ENSO也是英国/欧洲气候变化的一个因素。厄尔尼诺/南方涛动循环有暖(厄尔尼诺)和冷(拉尼娜)阶段,物理影响大致相反。最近的研究表明,厄尔尼诺/南方涛动也有不止一种类型,视赤道太平洋区域内的位置而定,不同类型的遥相关效应也各不相同。需要进一步了解这些不同的影响及其背后的过程,以便更好地预测厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件发生后的后果。这项建议的工作目的是研究厄尔尼诺/南方涛动现象和遥相关现象,方法是:(a)分析观测数据和实际气候模式,利用数学方法确定厄尔尼诺/南方涛动演变和相关大气变化的各种“模式”;(B)用简化的大气环流模式进行数值试验,研究系统的类似厄尔尼诺/南方涛动强迫引起的动力学相互作用。虽然简化的模式不太现实,但通过减少这种模式中的物理机制,可以把注意力集中在与实际气候变率有关的特定动力过程和原因及影响上。简化的模式试验也提供了一个机会来检验(a)中所用分析方法的优点和缺点。结果将帮助我们理解为什么遥相关效应在不同的ENSO事件之间可能不同,以及热带和热带外的过程是如何相互关联的。一个重要的潜在好处是,长期预报制作者将能够检查用于预测厄尔尼诺/南方涛动及其影响的系统中是否适当地反映了有关的路径:因此,气象局通过每月至十年期预报小组成为这一项目的合作伙伴。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(4)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Fluid and Solid Mechanics
流体与固体力学
  • DOI:
    10.1142/9781786340276_0001
  • 发表时间:
    2016
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Davey M
  • 通讯作者:
    Davey M
The probability of the impact of ENSO on precipitation and near-surface temperature
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.crm.2013.12.002
  • 发表时间:
    2014-01-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    4.4
  • 作者:
    Davey, M. K.;Brookshaw, A.;Ineson, S.
  • 通讯作者:
    Ineson, S.
Spatio-temporal stability analysis applied to monsoon anticyclone flow
季风反气旋流时空稳定性分析
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Peter Howard Haynes其他文献

Peter Howard Haynes的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Peter Howard Haynes', 18)}}的其他基金

EXport Pathways Out of the Southern ocean and the Effect on anthropogenic carbon sequestration (Expose)
南大洋的出口路径及其对人为碳封存的影响(揭露)
  • 批准号:
    NE/J009687/1
  • 财政年份:
    2012
  • 资助金额:
    $ 21.29万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Source and Pathway Sensitivity in Troposphere-to-Stratosphere Transport: An Adjoint-Based Approach
对流层到平流层传输中的源和路径敏感性:基于伴随的方法
  • 批准号:
    NE/G018812/1
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 21.29万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Mixing regions, mixing barriers and a closure theory for baroclinic turbulence
混合区域、混合障碍和斜压湍流的闭合理论
  • 批准号:
    NE/G007179/1
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 21.29万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Upper tropospheric humidity at low latitudes
低纬度对流层上层湿度
  • 批准号:
    NE/F004990/1
  • 财政年份:
    2008
  • 资助金额:
    $ 21.29万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant

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