Changes in urbanisation and its effects on water quantity and quality from local to regional scale

在过去的50年里，英国土地利用发生了巨大的变化，而且这种变化可能会继续下去。到2035年，英国人口预计将增加16%，这将改变城市地区的规模和结构，并增加土地管理的压力，特别是在东南部。该项目通过调用一系列经过测试的建模方法和相关专业知识，将促进对城市化对水资源和污染的细尺度影响的理解，而这些影响目前尚不清楚。重点将放在泰晤士河流域的水安全上，对该流域未来人口和气候的预测表明，水资源严重紧张。将在地方一级进行详细的个案研究（包括布拉克内尔和斯温登），在这些地方过去土地使用的变化对河流水文和生态状况的影响可能很大，并将制订和测试一种新的综合模拟办法。然后，该方法将被合理化并扩大规模，以便在整个泰晤士河进行测试，并结合城市发展和土地管理变化的预测，用于量化未来的影响。这些研究结果将在气候驱动因素的直接后果的背景下进行阐述。

Over the past 50 years changes in UK land-use have been considerable and substantial change is likely to continue. The UK population is projected to increase by 16% to 2035 which will bring about change to the size and structure of urban areas and increased pressure on land management, especially in the south-east. This project, by calling upon a range of tested modelling approaches and associated expertise will advance understanding of the fine-scale impacts of urbanisation on water resources and pollution, which are currently poorly understood. The focus will be on water security in the Thames river basin where projections of future population and climate indicate serious water stress. Detailed case studies at a local scale (including Bracknell and Swindon), where the impacts of past land-use changes on river hydrological and ecological regimes are likely to be large, will be undertaken and a novel integrated modelling approach developed and tested. The approach will then be rationalised and up-scaled for testing across the entire Thames, and, in conjunction with projections of urban development and land management change, used to quantify future effects. These findings will be set in the context of effects indicated to be a direct consequence of climate drivers.