Real-time assemsments of wind related damage to electricity infrastructure Societal Theme Sustainability

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Dealing with the consequences of weather related phenomena is an age-old problem. We have made great advances in predicting the weather, but we have made little progress in turning the outputs of these forecasts into actionable information that can help us manage their consequences. The winter storms of 2013/14 and 2014/15 demonstrated that our electrical distribution networks are not only vulnerable to strong winds, but their failure severely impacts on communities. This project will develop and test a new form of weather forecasting, which we term "consequence forecasts". These forecasts are essentially the same as traditional weather forecasts, however, they give a probabilistic assessment of the likely impacts and consequences of weather rather than just predicting the intensity of a weather variable. In this research will make forecasts of the number and location of electricity faults, provided via heat maps, and the number of customers without power. Keywords: wind storm, resilience, electricity infrastructure, natural hazard, consequence forecasts, weather forecastsStakeholders:Western Power Distribution, National Grid, Energy Networks Association, Met Office, Electricity Consumers