NEC05883 Ecological implications of increased storm disturbance: will substrate exposure and flooding generate vacant niche space under global change

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In December 2015, Storm Desmond (5-6th), Storm Eva (23rd) and Storm Frank (28th) caused extensive flooding and land slippage across Cumbria, Lancashire and Yorkshire. Urban and rural environments and transport routes were impacted exposing typically freely draining flood-plain grasslands to severe inundation and exposing sub-soils and parent material along valley sides and river banks. We take the 28th as the date when the science opportunity became fully available. We propose work to sample exposed and flooded substrates in Cumbria resulting from these three storm events. The work is urgent because as flood waters recede and agricultural management cycles restart, soil conditions will be less reflective of the immediate storm impact. Also land slips and major erosion may be subject to remediation and maybe capped or otherwise landscaped thus removing the sampling opportunity.Across the UK extremes of wind and rainfall are becoming more frequent under a warming climate. Storm-induced vegetation disturbance resulting from flooding and land-slip will therefore become a more common feature of urban and rural environments. Because we rely on soil and vegetation complexes for a range of natural 'services' such as crop production, soil stabilisation, flood defence and pollination, knowledge is required about whether and how storm-induced gaps will naturally re-vegetate in the short and longer term, and whether re-colonising species will be in shorter supply because newly exposed substrates and a changing climate, provide unsuitable conditions for native and naturalised plants present in the local, regional or wider species pools. Identifying which plant species are favoured by new configurations of soil and climate is important because new colonists may provide a different suite of 'botanical services' to the pre-existing vegetation. In Cumbria flooding and land-slip have impacted high and lower quality agricultural grassland, river bank, municipal parkland and other urban vegetation. If left to re-colonise naturally would present and future vegetation gaps provide different levels and types of 'botanical service' or is re-colonisation failure likely to occur because new conditions represent new niche space with respect to the local and regional flora?