NEC05883 Ecological implications of increased storm disturbance: will substrate exposure and flooding generate vacant niche space under global change

2015年12月，风暴德斯蒙德（5- 6日）、风暴伊娃（23日）和风暴弗兰克（28日）在坎布里亚郡、兰开夏郡和约克郡造成大范围洪水和土地滑移。城市和农村环境以及运输路线受到影响，使通常排水自如的洪泛平原草原遭受严重的洪水淹没，并使沿着河谷和河岸的底土和母质暴露在外。我们把28日作为科学机会完全可用的日期。我们建议的工作样品暴露和淹没基板在坎布里亚郡造成这三个风暴事件。这项工作是紧迫的，因为随着洪水沃茨的消退和农业管理周期的重新开始，土壤条件将不那么反映风暴的直接影响。此外，土地滑坡和严重侵蚀可能会受到补救，可能会被覆盖或以其他方式覆盖，从而消除采样机会。在气候变暖的情况下，英国各地的极端风和降雨变得越来越频繁。因此，由水浸和山泥倾泻引致的风暴所引致的植被破坏，将会成为城市和乡郊环境的一个较常见的现象。由于我们依赖土壤和植被复合体提供一系列自然“服务”，如作物生产，土壤稳定，防洪和授粉，因此需要了解风暴引起的间隙是否以及如何在短期和长期内自然重新生长，以及重新殖民的物种是否会因为新暴露的基质和气候变化而供应短缺，为本地、区域或更广泛的物种库中的本地和归化植物提供不合适的条件。确定哪些植物物种受到新的土壤和气候配置的青睐是很重要的，因为新的殖民者可能会为原有的植被提供不同的“植物服务”。在坎布里亚郡，洪水和滑坡影响了高质量和低质量的农业草地、河岸、市政帕克兰和其他城市植被。如果让它自然地重新殖民，那么现在和未来的植被缺口将提供不同水平和类型的“植物服务”，或者重新殖民失败可能会发生，因为新的条件代表了当地和区域植物群的新生态位空间？

In December 2015, Storm Desmond (5-6th), Storm Eva (23rd) and Storm Frank (28th) caused extensive flooding and land slippage across Cumbria, Lancashire and Yorkshire. Urban and rural environments and transport routes were impacted exposing typically freely draining flood-plain grasslands to severe inundation and exposing sub-soils and parent material along valley sides and river banks. We take the 28th as the date when the science opportunity became fully available. We propose work to sample exposed and flooded substrates in Cumbria resulting from these three storm events. The work is urgent because as flood waters recede and agricultural management cycles restart, soil conditions will be less reflective of the immediate storm impact. Also land slips and major erosion may be subject to remediation and maybe capped or otherwise landscaped thus removing the sampling opportunity.Across the UK extremes of wind and rainfall are becoming more frequent under a warming climate. Storm-induced vegetation disturbance resulting from flooding and land-slip will therefore become a more common feature of urban and rural environments. Because we rely on soil and vegetation complexes for a range of natural 'services' such as crop production, soil stabilisation, flood defence and pollination, knowledge is required about whether and how storm-induced gaps will naturally re-vegetate in the short and longer term, and whether re-colonising species will be in shorter supply because newly exposed substrates and a changing climate, provide unsuitable conditions for native and naturalised plants present in the local, regional or wider species pools. Identifying which plant species are favoured by new configurations of soil and climate is important because new colonists may provide a different suite of 'botanical services' to the pre-existing vegetation. In Cumbria flooding and land-slip have impacted high and lower quality agricultural grassland, river bank, municipal parkland and other urban vegetation. If left to re-colonise naturally would present and future vegetation gaps provide different levels and types of 'botanical service' or is re-colonisation failure likely to occur because new conditions represent new niche space with respect to the local and regional flora?