UK Climate During The Common Era

古气候数据提供了研究自然和人为强迫气候变异性及其归属所需的定量信息和背景。如果我们的社会要适当地应对未来气候变化的挑战，了解联合王国(英国)过去的气候变化是至关重要的。只有有了这些信息，才有可能制定有效的政策，并对日益支撑英国气候政策的地球系统模型的性能进行批判性评估。目前，特定于代理的限制严重制约了这些岛屿可靠的温度或降水重建的数量。这一点在可用数字验证的晚全新世(&lt；2kya)气候重建中尤其如此。值得注意的是，尽管古气候学有着悠久的传统，但我们没有信心确定季节性极端事件的频率，甚至没有确定罗马、中世纪或“小冰河时代”时期的温度和降水水平；因此，重要的是，我们不能与最近的气候进行比较。因此，政策制定者、研究人员和公众被迫依赖信心较低的重建，或者基于轶事证据的过时、未经校准的低频记录。这对现代数值分析和稳健的循证决策来说都是完全不合适的。我们的新方法，但经过严格测试，是基于精确测年的橡树年轮的稳定碳和氧同位素分析。这些数据能够以很高的数值精度捕捉过去的气候变化(温度和降水)。因此，我们可以解决英国和其他代表性不足的中纬度地区的这一研究差距。该项目将开发2000年夏季温度和降水的可数字验证重建，并定义置信度区间。这类数据是研究界迫切需要的，将被纳入国家和大陆规模的古气候综合数据，增强其区域相关性和重建技能。我们将提供一个定量参考气候学，这将标志着英国古气候学的一步变化，从依赖开创性的但过时的研究(例如，Lamb 1966)，转向对过去气候的新的数值和严格限制的理解。

Palaeoclimatic data provide the quantitative information and context required for the study and attribution of natural- and anthropogenic-forced climatic variability. If our society is to appropriately address the future challenges of climate change, it is of vital importance that we know how the climate of the United Kingdom (UK) has varied in the past. Only with this information will it be possible to formulate effective policy and critically evaluate the performance of the Earth system models that increasingly underpin UK climate policy.Currently proxy-specific limitations severely constrain the number of reliable temperature or precipitation reconstructions for these islands. This is especially true of numerically verifiable reconstructions of late Holocene (<2kya) climate. Remarkably, despite a long established tradition of palaeoclimatology, we have not established, with any confidence, the frequency of seasonal extremes, or indeed the levels of temperature and precipitation of the Roman, Mediaeval, or "Little Ice Age" periods; and importantly, we cannot therefore make comparisons with recent climate. As a consequence, policy makers, researchers and the public are forced to rely upon lower-confidence reconstructions or outdated, uncalibrated low-frequency records based upon anecdotal evidence. This is wholly inappropriate for both modern numerical analyses and robust evidence-based decision making.Our new, but rigorously tested method, is based upon the stable carbon and oxygen isotope analysis of precisely-dated oak tree-rings. These data are capable of capturing past climatic variability (both temperature and precipitation) with a high degree of numerical accuracy. We can therefore address this research gap for the UK and other under-represented, temperate mid-latitude regions.This project will develop 2000 year numerically verifiable reconstructions of summer temperature and precipitation, with defined confidence intervals. Such data are urgently required by the research community and will be incorporated into national and continental-scale palaeoclimate composites, enhancing their regional relevance and reconstructive skill. We will deliver a quantitative reference climatology that will mark a step-change in UK palaeoclimatology, moving from reliance upon seminal, but outdated research (e.g. Lamb 1966), to a new numerical and tightly constrained understanding of past climate.