NSFGEO-NERC Advancing Predictability of Sea Ice: Phase 2 of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN2)

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The shrinking Arctic sea-ice cover has captured the attention of the world. The downward Septembertrend has accelerated over the last decade, with the 10 lowest September sea-ice extents occurring in thelast 10 years. An essentially ice-free Arctic during summer is expected by mid-century. Loss of the seaicecover has profound consequences for ecosystems and human activities in the Arctic, so there is anurgent need to advance sea-ice predictions in all seasons at both the pan-Arctic and regional scales. A keyfinding that emerged from the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) effort is that predictions of Septembersea-ice extent tend to have less skill in extreme years that strongly depart from the trend line. Theobjective of proposed research under Phase 2 of SIPN (SIPN2) is to improve forecast skill throughadopting a multi-disciplinary approach that includes modeling, new products, data analysis, scientificnetworks, and stakeholder engagement. Specifically, the team will: (1) Investigate the sensitivity ofsubseasonal-to-seasonal sea-ice predictability in the Alaska Arctic to variations in oceanic heat and largescaleatmospheric forcing using a dynamical model (NCAR CESM) and statistical forecasting tools,focusing on spatial fields in addition to total extent summaries; (2) Assess the accuracy of Sea IceOutlook (SIO) submissions based on methodology and initialization; (3) Develop new observation-basedproducts for improving sea-ice predictions, including sea-ice thickness, surface roughness, melt ponds,and snow depth; (4) Evaluate the socio-economic value of sea-ice forecasts to stakeholders who manageship traffic and coastal village resupply in the Alaska Sector, and engage the public in Arctic climate andsea-ice prediction through blog exchanges, accessible SIO reports, bi-monthly webinars, and by makingpublic data sources useful to non-scientists and scientists alike; and (5) Continue and evolve networkactivities to generate SIO forecasts and reporting for September minima as in SIPN and expand SIPN2forecasts to include full spatial resolution and emerging ice-anomaly-months (October/November).