Climate change and the tourism sector: impacts and adaptations at visitor attractions

旅游业对英国的经济、社会和文化至关重要。政府在其旅游业复苏计划（2021年6月）中将其描述为“国家资产”，在冠状病毒大流行之前，旅游业占国内生产总值约10%，雇用约10%的劳动力（330万工人），并被强调为英国脱欧后经济发展的中心支柱。虽然旅游业是经济的一个关键部门，也是许多公民生活的一部分，但英国气候变化给旅游业带来的机遇和风险尚未得到系统或持续的研究。作为人类活动的一种形式，至少在英国对天气和大气条件高度敏感，对未来气候变化对旅游业可能产生的影响和必要的适应措施的关注非常有限。最近（2021年6月），气候变化委员会（CCC）每五年为政府准备的第三次独立气候变化风险评估（CCRA 3）提供证据的技术报告也强调了这一明显的知识差距。这个及时而紧迫的项目的目的是通过调查当前和预测的未来气候条件下天气/气候与景点参观之间的关系来迎接这一挑战。对来访者和来访者的关注是新颖的。到目前为止，在现有的研究中，主要的方法是集中在气候变化对游客居住地点（例如沿海地区，历史建筑）的影响，而不是天气和气候如何与行为有关。作为英国第一项此类研究，它将采用2018年发布的英国气候预测（UKCP 18）和CCRA 3气候未来来预测可能的变化。主要的研究问题是气候变化如何影响游客在景点的模式和行为，以及到2050年及以后对未来游客经济可能产生的后果。更具体地说，通过在国家信托基金提供气候变化适应方案的团队中开展工作，它将：1。确定主要的气候风险和机会与旅游景点（即财产）在海岸，在农村和历史遗迹;2.检查当前天气/气候与各个景点（即属性）的访问量（数量，花费，停留时间）之间的关系作为基线;3.调查这种关系是否因不同类型的吸引力、其背景和属性而异;4.使用UKCP 18数据，研究在不同的气候情景和假设下访问量可能如何变化; 5.确定景点脆弱性和暴露的性质、程度和空间模式，以及应考虑对暴露最严重的人采取何种适应措施;了解各个景点在应对不断变化的游客决策方面所面临的挑战以及对游客基础设施的可能影响。该项目将使用由苏格兰国家信托和历史环境组织编制的关于景点游客的二级数据集，结合气象局的天气/气候数据，通过统计分析和建模来检查目标1-5。对本分析中确定的个别房地产的个案研究将调查目标6，以确定因气候变化而可能需要对游客基础设施进行的改动。景点在激励和塑造旅行方面发挥着关键作用，而对建筑和自然遗产的重视反映了英国遗产旅游的受欢迎程度和经济价值。2015年，国内和国际游客前往英国的文化，历史和自然资产进行了1.92亿次旅行，这些游客的平均消费超过其他部分，并为英国GDP贡献了1.1%以上（牛津经济2016 p3）

Tourism is a vital to UK economy, society and culture. Described by government in its Tourism Recovery Plan (June 2021) as a 'national asset', prior to the Coronavirus pandemic the tourism sector accounted for around 10% of GDP, employed around 10% of the workforce (3.3 million workers), and it was highlighted as a central pillar for post-Brexit economic development. Although a key sector of the economy and a part of many citizens' lives, the opportunities and the risks to tourism from a changing climate in the UK have not been the subject of systematic or sustained research. As a form of human activity, that in the UK at least is highly sensitive to weather and atmospheric conditions, there has been very limited attention to the possible impacts of, and necessary adaptation to, future climate change to the tourism sector. This conspicuous gap in knowledge was also recently (June 2021) highlighted in the technical reports providing evidence for the third independent Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) which the Climate Change Commission (CCC) prepares for government every five years. The aim of this timely and urgent project is to pick up this challenges by investigating the relationship between weather/climate and visitation to attractions under current and predicted future climatic conditions. The focus on visitors and visitation is novel. To date, within existing research the main approach has been to concentrate on the impacts of climate change on the locations that visitors inhabit (e.g. coastal areas, historic buildings) rather than how weather and climate relate to behaviour. As the first study of its type in the UK, it will employ the UK Climate Predictions published in 2018 (UKCP18) and the CCRA3 climate futures to predict possible changes. The main research questions are how may climate change affect visitor patterns and behaviours at attractions, and what are the likely consequences for the future visitor economy to 2050 and beyond? More specifically, through work embedded in the team delivering the Climate Change Adaptation programme at the National Trust, it will: 1. Identify the main climate risks and opportunities associated with visits to attractions (i.e. properties) on the coast, in the countryside and at historic sites;2. Examine the relationship between current weather/climate and visitation (numbers, spend, dwell time) at individual attractions (i.e. properties) as a baseline;3. Investigate whether the relationship varies by different types of attraction, their contexts and attributes;4. Using UKCP18 data, examine how visitation may change under different climate scenarios and assumptions; 5. Establish the nature, extent and spatial pattern of vulnerability and exposure at attractions, and what adaptation responses should be considered for the most exposed;6. Understand the challenges presented for individual attractions in responding to changing visitor decision-making and possible impacts on visitor infrastructure.The project will use secondary datasets compiled by the National Trust and Historic Environment Scotland on visitors to their attractions in combination with weather/climate data from the Met Office to examine objectives 1-5 through statistical analysis and modelling. Case-studies of individual properties identified in this analysis will investigate objective 6, with a view to identifying possible alterations in visitor infrastructure required as a result of climate change. Attractions have a key role in motivating and shaping trips away while the emphasis on built and natural heritage reflects the popularity and financial value of heritage tourism in the UK. In 2015, domestic and international tourists made 192 million trips to the UK's cultural, historic and natural assets, with such visitors spending on average more than those in other segments and contributing over 1.1% to UK GDP (Oxford Economics 2016 p3)