MODEL TRANSITION SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

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DESCRIPTION: This project will develop software tools for assessing the impacts of model assumptions on decisions regarding the analysis, surveillance, and control of infectious diseases. Most analyses consider sensitivity only to changes in a model's parameter values, and ignore how assumptions of model form (e.g. deterministic vs. stochastic, ODE vs. discrete individual) impact results and concomitant decisions. The research will: (1) Conduct a requirements analysis to specify the simulation engines and functionality to incorporate in the software. (2) Develop and test a software prototype to evaluate feasibility of the proposed approaches. (3) Build, test and implement a complete software package based on results of the prototype. (4) Apply the software and methods to demonstrate the approach and its unique benefits for disease and surveillance control. The Phase I research will address the first two aims; aims three and four will be accomplished in Phase II once feasibility is demonstrated. The technologic and scientific innovations from this project are expected to revolutionize our ability to formulate sound decisions regarding the analysis, surveillance and control of infectious diseases. PROPOSED COMMERCIAL APPLICATION: NOT AVAILABLE