Indicators of escalation in domestic violent crime using police data on perpetrators and victims

准确识别家庭暴力犯罪造成严重伤害和死亡的风险，将使警方能够更有效地针对资源，减少对家庭暴力犯罪受害者健康和福祉的直接伤害，并减少对社会的更广泛伤害。了解家庭暴力犯罪的升级将有助于更好地利用稀缺资源，并有助于减少家庭暴力犯罪率。这将使用先进的定量方法（AQM）。人们对开发简单的工具来估计未来家庭暴力犯罪的风险非常感兴趣。亲密伴侣和其他家庭成员犯下的暴力犯罪率正在上升，而其他形式的暴力犯罪却在继续下降。家庭暴力犯罪属于重复犯罪；减少个别受害者遭受的重复次数既可以减少个人伤害，也可以减少暴力犯罪的总数量。

Accurate identification of the risk of serious harm and death from domestic violent crime would enable the more effective targeting of resources by the police, the reduction of immediate harm to the health and well-being of victims of domestic violent crime and the reduction of the wider harms to society. Understanding escalation in domestic violent crime would enable the better targeting of scarce resources as well as facilitating a reduction in the rate of domestic violent crime. This will use advanced quantitative methods (AQM).There is significant interest in the development of simple instruments to estimatefuture risk of domestic violent crime. The rate of violent crime committed by intimate partners and other family members is increasing, while other forms of violent crime continue to fall1. Domestic violent crime is a repeat offence; reducing the number of repetitions suffered by individual victims would both reduce individual harm and reduce the overall volume of violent crime.