Developing industry-led tools to improve water and flood defence infrastructure through natural capital

近年来，河流洪水一直是英国的一个值得注意的问题，由于气候变化，预计洪水的频率和严重程度将增加。英国气候变化委员会的适应小组委员会强调，洪水风险是紧急干预的四个关键领域之一。英国气候变化风险评估（CCRA）2012年估计，到21世纪50年代，全国每年因洪水造成的损失可能会从基线12亿英镑增加到16亿至68亿英镑，到21世纪50年代，受影响的人口将从基线约90万人增加到130万至360万人。在这一具有挑战性的领域，旨在与泰晤士水务公司合作开发一种新的“流域管理工具”，以应对未来保护土地的挑战;其他重要的合作伙伴，如牛津郡的Evenlode Catchment Partnership，阿特金斯咨询公司和西尔瓦基金会将参与其中，利用广泛的专业知识，在集水区内建立有效的管理工具。自然洪水管理（NFM）是一种方法，包括旨在通过自然资本方法强调恢复固有水文和形态过程、特征和特性的所有技术，提供与径流率和水质相关的重要调节服务，并被强调为重要的气候变化适应战略。这些技术包括恢复，加强和改变自然特征和特性，但不包括不利于或破坏这些自然过程的传统防御工程。该项目还将涉及实施农村可持续排水系统（RSuDS），以通过可持续系统改善排水，减少洪水风险和农药和化肥污染，使水务公司有机会在不使用更多和更昂贵的基础设施处理已污染的沃茨的情况下实施水质管理，从而解决农业扩散污染问题。该项目的目标是多方面的：i）通过建模方法评估NFM措施在泰晤士河上游流域可实现的洪水风险降低，ii）开发基于网络的工具，以评估可实施NFM和RSuDS措施的洪水和水污染主要风险区域，（三）建立一个市场，土地所有者可以衡量其土地提供的生态系统服务，服务的受益者将能够与土地所有者签订合同，继续和加强陆面模型JULES中的分布式水文模型将用于预测不同NFM情景对洪峰流量减少的影响。将评估三种NFM情景：森林覆盖率增加15%，微型池塘建设，两种措施一起应用。这些设想方案所依据的概念是将水保留在地貌中，但由于一方面普遍提出植树造林作为减少径流产生的措施，另一方面，微型池塘通常被建议作为NFM措施，重点是在景观中引入小的保留元素。我认为长期以来，牛津大学的长期生态实验室是开发这个项目的正确地点：正在进行的自然贸易项目旨在为生态丰富的损失开发一种创新的解决方案，它还将试图弥合学术研究与生态系统服务提供政策之间的差距。这种与不同利益攸关方打交道的经验，加上处理数据集、处理图像和开发工具的专门知识，将有助于取得成功的结果。

River flooding has been a notable issue in the UK in recent times and it is projected to increase in frequency and severity because of climate changes. The UK Climate Change Committee's Adaptations Sub Committee has highlighted flood risk as one of four key areas for urgent intervention. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) in 2012 has estimated that the annual cost to the nation for flooding is likely to increase from the baseline of £1.2 billion to between £1.6 and £6.8 billion by the 2050s with between 1.3 and 3.6 million people affected by the 2050s from the baseline of about 900.000 people.This proposed research will intervene in this challenging field aiming at developing a new 'Catchment Management Tool' in partnership with Thames Water, to face the future challenges in protecting the land; other important partners such as Evenlode Catchment Partnership in Oxfordshire, Atkins Consultancy and the Sylva Foundation will be involved to draw on the wide range of expertise needed to build effective management tool within a catchment.Natural Flood Management (NFM) is a method that comprises all the techniques that aim to emphasize the restoration of innate hydrological and morphological processes, features and characteristics through the natural capital approach, providing important regulating services in relation to both runoff rates and water quality and is highlighted as an important climate change adaption strategy.These techniques include the restoration, enhancement and alteration of natural features and characteristics, but exclude traditional defence engineering that works against or disrupts these natural processes. This project will involve also the implementation of Rural Sustainable Drainage Systems (RSuDS) to improve the drainage with sustainable systems that can reduce the risk of flooding and pollution from pesticides and fertilisers, giving the opportunity for water companies to implement water quality without using further and more expensive infrastructures to treat already polluted waters, such addressing the problem of diffuse pollution from agriculture. The aims of this project are multiple: i) assessment of the possible reduction in flood risk achievable by NFM measures in the Upper Thames basin through a modelling approach, ii) development of a web-based tool to assess the areas at major risk of flooding and water pollution where NFM and RSuDS measures could be implemented, iii) creation of a marketplace where landowners could measure the ecosystem services provided by their land and where the beneficiaries of the services will be able to contract with landowners for the continued and enhanced provision of these.The distributed hydrological modelling in the land surface model JULES will be used to predict the impacts of different NFM scenarios on peak flow reduction. Three NFM scenarios will be evaluated: 15% increase in forest cover, micro-ponds construction, both the measures applied together. These scenarios are based on the concept of retaining water into the landscape, but as on the one hand afforestation is generally proposed as a measure for the reduction of run-off generation, on the other hand, micro-ponds have generally been suggested as NFM measures that focus on the introduction of small retention elements in the landscape.I think the Long-term Ecology Lab at the University of Oxford is the right place to develop this project: the ongoing NaturEtrade project aims at developing an innovative solution for the loss of ecologically rich-land in Europe and it will also try to connect the gap between academic research and policy on ecosystem service provision. This experience in dealing with different stakeholders together with the expertise in dealing with datasets, processing imagery and developing tools will help achieving successful results.