Strengthening causal inference in antisocial behaviour research

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YEAR 1 (2018): RotationsYEAR 2 (2019): PhD Project: Strengthening causal inference in antisocial behaviour research: Elucidating the role of environmental risk factors using innovative statistical methods and longitudinal datasetsConduct problems (CP), and associated antisocial behaviour, are the most common reason for referral to Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services in the UK. However, the causal, as opposed to correlational, relationship between putative risk factors and the development of CP has not been thoroughly investigated. In order to design effective interventions for CP, it is essential to examine and develop etiological theories, identify modifiable causal risk factors and understand when and for whom these factors increase the likelihood and severity of CP.The proposed PhD project will address gaps in the existing literature by 1) summarising the most stringent evidence currently available on risk factors for CP; 2) determining, using innovative statistical methods and large datasets, whether previously identified psychosocial and biological risk factors causally influence the development of CP; 3) establishing how these causal risk factors may be influenced by other factors. As the proposed approaches (specially: g-methods, Mendelian randomisation and twin-study analyses) rely on different assumptions and designs, they will allow triangulation of evidence and lead to more robust results and reliable conclusions than those reported in published research. Therefore it is anticipated that the proposed project will considerably further our understanding of the development of CP.