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Predicting epidemic size and disease evolution in natural systems

预测自然系统中的流行病规模和疾病演变

基本信息

批准号：
2115576
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University of Stirling
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2115576
关键词：
Predicting epidemic size disease evolution

项目摘要

Environmental change shapes disease ecology and evolution in numerous host-parasite systems through many different mechanisms. The complexity of natural host-parasite populations - in terms of host genetics, parasite genetics and environmental conditions - has hampered our ability to predict the future of disease. Improving this knowledge is of paramount importance, as climate change is causing more variable weather, which will impact on our ability to predict when epidemics occur and how severe they will be.This project will combine field surveys, semi-natural outdoor experiments, and controlled lab experiments to collect data and build models to predict disease in a naturally coevolving host-parasite system (the crustacean Daphnia magna and its sterilizing bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa).The NERC-funded Stirling Outdoor Disease Experiment (SODE) is an established long-term project where twenty replicate populations of a naturally coevolving host-parasite system are tracked across multiple epidemics. The host, Daphnia magna, is a freshwater crustacean that can reproduce both sexually and asexually, and the parasite, Pasteuriaramosa, is a highly virulent environmentally transmitted bacterium that sterilizes its hosts. In SODE's first year, each population was seeded with an identical suite of host genotypes and dose of parasite transmission spores. SODE is generating a long-term data set that allows us to dissect the contribution of host genetics, parasite genetics and ambient

环境变化通过许多不同的机制塑造了许多宿主-寄生虫系统中的疾病生态和进化。自然宿主-寄生虫种群的复杂性-在宿主遗传学，寄生虫遗传学和环境条件方面-阻碍了我们预测疾病未来的能力。提高这方面的知识是至关重要的，因为气候变化正在造成更多变的天气，这将影响我们预测流行病何时发生及其严重程度的能力。该项目将结合联合收割机实地调查，半自然的户外实验，以及受控的实验室实验，以收集数据并建立模型来预测自然共同进化的宿主-寄生虫系统中的疾病NERC资助的斯特林户外疾病实验（SODE）是一个建立的长期项目，其中在多种流行病中跟踪自然共同进化的宿主-寄生虫系统的二十个重复种群。宿主大型蚤是一种淡水甲壳类动物，可以有性和无性繁殖，而寄生虫巴斯德氏菌是一种高度致命的环境传播细菌，可以使其宿主绝育。在SODE的第一年，每个种群都接种了一套相同的宿主基因型和剂量的寄生虫传播孢子。SODE正在生成一个长期数据集，使我们能够剖析宿主遗传学、寄生虫遗传学和环境因素的贡献。