Life history and dispersal of the alien seaweed Sargassum muticum in Scottish coastal waters: an individual-based modelling approach

该项目将解决驱动入侵海藻马尾藻在苏格兰沿海水域扩张的关键因素。由于入侵物种往往会对关键的生态系统服务（如水产养殖、娱乐和海洋运输）产生负面影响，阐明导致马尾藻成功入侵的机制将有助于我们了解马尾藻的扩张，并可能使管理人员能够保护我们沿海海域的关键生态系统服务。我们计划开发一个基于个体的模型（IBM），该模型考虑了外来海藻马尾藻的生活史，然后将其与苏格兰海洋公司开发的苏格兰大陆架模型（SSM）结合起来（https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-shelf-model-part-1-shelf-wide-domain/）。SSM-IBM模型将用于模拟马尾藻在苏格兰沿海海域的分布、扩散和可能的未来扩张，并将根据国家生物多样性网络（NBN）地图集（https://species.nbnatlas.org/species/NHMSYS0021058667）等观测数据进行优化。模型结果将有助于解决以下关键问题：1)什么是导致马尾藻快速入侵苏格兰沿海水域的关键因素（生物特性与扩散能力）？2)洋流和混合在决定马尾藻扩散过程中的作用是什么？3)未来温度和海洋环流的变化是否有利于马尾藻在苏格兰水域的扩张？

This project will address the key factors driving the expansion of the invasive seaweed Sargassum muticum in Scottish coastal waters. As invasive species tend to have negative impacts on key ecosystem services such as aquaculture, recreation and marine transportation, elucidating the mechanisms that lead to the successful invasion of Sargassum muticum will contribute to our understanding of Sargassum muticum expansion and may allow management to preserve the key ecosystem services of our coastal seas. We plan to develop an individual based model (IBM) that considers the life history of the alien seaweed Sargassum muticum and then couple it with the Scottish Shelf Model (SSM) developed by Marine Scotland (https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-shelf-model-part-1-shelf-wide-domain/). The SSM-IBM model will be used to simulate the distribution, dispersal, and possible future expansion of Sargassum muticum in Scottish coastal seas and will be optimised against observational data such as the National Biodiversity Network (NBN) atlas (https://species.nbnatlas.org/species/NHMSYS0021058667). The model results will help to address the following key questions:1) What are the key factors (biological traits versus dispersal ability) that allow the quick invasion of Sargassum muticum in Scottish coastal waters?2) What is the role of ocean currents and mixing in determining the dispersal of Sargassum muticum? 3) Will the future changes in temperature and ocean circulation favour the expansion of Sargassum muticum in Scottish waters?