Deviance proneness and risk for alcohol dependence

描述（由申请人提供）：本申请建议进行第二次五年随访 对338名年龄在24-29岁之间的种族多样的年轻人（男性=148）的样本进行评估，以检查与预测几种酒精使用行为（包括病理性参与）有关的“偏差倾向”脆弱性模型。这个模型假设，一个重要方面的易感性发展病理性酒精参与由于父母的酗酒史可能会导致社会化和问题行为的不足。虽然偏离倾向模型最初是作为一个启发式模型来解释病理性酒精参与的发展，该模型的许多元素也被牵连作为早期发病的酒精使用和早期大量使用酒精的预测。拟议的研究建立在我们以前对行为问题和反社会人格障碍的工作的基础上，并扩展了这一样本和其他样本。最初在受试者14-19岁时收集关于模型关键特征的信息，并在19-24岁时再次收集。这项研究的独特之处在于，样本是从社区中确定的，具有种族多样性，并且在两次初步评估中使用临床，心理社会，认知和电生理措施进行了很好的表征;父母也直接接受了采访。使用来自三个不同时间点的数据，本建议将：1）测试模型在受试者生命中的三个不同时间点预测不同饮酒行为的准确性：在青春期中期，在青春期后期，以及在年轻的成年期; 2）检查 年龄、种族、性别、同伴和家庭关系以及应对能力作为偏差倾向模型在这三个不同时间点预测酒精使用和酒精问题的能力的潜在中介者/调节者;以及3）检查偏差倾向模型随着时间的推移预测酒精使用行为的准确性。使用结构方程建模方法，基线和时间2收集的数据将用于预测时间3的饮酒行为，包括病理性饮酒。我们还将继续使用基线数据进行分析，以预测时间2的酒精使用行为。还将检查在这三个不同时间点预测早期开始定期饮酒、重度定期饮酒和病理性饮酒的偏差倾向模型的稳定性和有效性。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This application proposes a second five-year follow-up evaluation of a sample of 338 ethnically diverse, young adults (males=148) between the ages of 24-29 years old to examine the 'Deviance Prone' model of vulnerability in relation to predicting several alcohol use behaviors, including pathological involvement. This model posits that a significant aspect of the susceptibility for developing pathological alcohol involvement due to a parental history of alcoholism may result from deficient socialization and problem behavior. Although the Deviance Prone model was originally proposed as a heuristic model to explain the development of pathological alcohol involvement, many elements of the model have also been implicated as predictors of early onset of alcohol use and early heavy use of alcohol. The proposed study builds upon and extends our previous work on conduct problems and antisocial personality disorder with this and other samples. Information on key features of the model were initially collected when subjects were 14-19 years old and again at 19-24 years old. The study is unique in that the sample was ascertained from the community, is ethnically diverse, and has been well characterized using clinical, psychosocial, cognitive, and electrophysiological measures during the two initial assessments; parents were also directly interviewed. Using data from the three different time points, the present proposal will: 1) test the accuracy of the model for predicting different drinking behaviors at three different points in the subjects' lives: in mid-adolescence, in late adolescence, and in young adulthood; 2) examine the influence of age, ethnicity, gender, peer, and family relations, and coping ability as potential mediators/moderators of the Deviance Prone model's ability to predict alcohol use and alcohol problems at these three different time points; and 3) examine the accuracy of the Deviance Prone model for predicting alcohol use behaviors over time. Using structural equation modeling methods, the data collected at baseline and at Time 2 will be used to predict drinking behaviors, including pathological alcohol use, at Time 3. We will also continue our analyses using the baseline data to predict alcohol use behaviors at Time 2. The stability and efficiency of the Deviance Prone model for predicting early initiation of regular alcohol use, heavy regular use, and pathological alcohol involvement at these three different points in time will also be examined.