The Gender Impact of Welfare Reform since 2010

全民信用(UC)是2010年联合政府的一项旗舰政策，将六项“遗产”福利整合到一个月付款中。UC的支付上限是一个家庭中有两个孩子。2015年，英国首相戴维·卡梅伦为政府的福利改革辩护，称之前的制度“摧毁了人们的抱负”，加州大学将“确保它总是值得工作的”(卡梅伦，2015)。在九年多和四届议会任期之后，这些政策尚未全面或按预期推出。福利团体和非政府组织的早期预警系统显示了意想不到的后果。公共账户委员会2018年发布的一份报告得出结论称，UC正在给许多旨在帮助的索赔人带来不可接受的困难和困难。联合国报告员菲利普·阿尔斯顿报告说，UC的索赔人感到被迫接受不适当的低薪临时工作，以避免虚弱的制裁(Alston，2018)。对许多女性来说，照顾孩子和其他照顾责任是她们在考虑重返工作或寻求更好的工作时面临的最大障碍。现实情况是，对于低收入父母来说，进入劳动力市场的收益可能会受到限制，因为育儿成本和时间限制限制了他们的求职领域。已确定UC的一些方面会使低收入父母更难获得托儿服务。研究问题：将探讨三个截然不同的问题，以了解女性在通用抵免和二孩限制下面临的权衡：1)英国政府最近对二孩限制实施的通用抵免和工作税收抵免对生育率有何影响？2)英国最近的福利改革对a)对女性的劳动力供应决策和b)对工作质量产生了什么影响？3)是否有证据表明，苏格兰相对于英国其他地区，研究方法：将使用前沿的准实验方法，如差异分析(DID)来确定政策对妇女结果的因果影响，以及推动政策预期和非预期结果的福利改革政策的关键特征。调查结果旨在促进关于福利改革的更广泛的政策辩论，并为未来几年的生活和发展政策确定具体的循证干预措施。影响：除了对学术文献做出贡献外，目的是利用这项研究为未来的政策提供信息。这项工作应该为UC和两孩限制的一些意想不到的后果的程度提供洞察力。然后，目的是就如何缓解问题和加强福利改革的预期结果做出推断，并提出旨在改善逐步和分阶段向UC过渡期间结果的建议。

Universal Credit (UC) was a flagship policy of the 2010 Coalition Government, rolling six 'legacy' benefits into one monthly payment. Payments of UC are capped at two children in a family. In 2015, Prime Minister David Cameron defended the Government's welfare reforms, stating that the previous system 'destroyed aspiration' and UC would 'ensure that it always pays to work' (Cameron, 2015). More than nine years and four parliamentary terms later, these policies have yet to be rolled out in full or as intended. Early warning systems from welfare groups and NGOs have indicated unintended consequences. A report released by the Public Accounts Committee in 2018 concluded that UC is "causing unacceptable hardship and difficulties for many of the claimants it was designed to help". UN Rapporteur Philip Alston reported that claimants of UC feel forced to 'take inappropriate low-paid, temporary work just to avoid debilitating sanctions' (Alston, 2018).For many women, childcare and other caring responsibilities are some of the biggest barriers they face when considering returning to work or seeking to move to better jobs. The reality is that for low-income parents, gains from entering the labour market can be limited, offset by childcare costs and time restrictions that limit their job search area. Aspects of UC have been identified that make it harder for low-income parents to access childcare. Research Questions:Three distinct questions will be explored in order to gain understanding of the trade-offs women face as a result of Universal Credit and the two-child limit: 1) How has the UK Government's recent imposition of a two-child limit on Universal Credit and Working Tax Credit impacted on fertility?2) How have recent UK welfare reforms impacted a) on the labour supply decisions of women and b) on job quality? 3) Is there any evidence to suggest that differential policy in Scotland, relative to the rest of the UK, (e.g. the Scottish Child Payment) is mitigating adverse impacts of the wider welfare reforms.Research Methods:Cutting-edge quasi-experimental methods such as difference-in- difference (DID) analysis will be used to identify the causal effects of the policy on outcomes for women and the key features of welfare reform policy that drive the policy's intended and unintended consequences. Findings are intended to contribute to the wider policy debate on welfare reform, and pinpoint specific evidence-based interventions for a live and developing policy over the following years. Impact:In addition to contributing to academic literature, the intention is to use this research to inform future policy. The work should provide insights into the extent of some unintended consequences of UC and the two-child limit. The aim is then to make inferences on how to mitigate problems and strengthen the intended consequences of the welfare reforms and to make recommendations aimed at improving outcomes during the gradual and phased switch to UC.