The Gender Impact of Welfare Reform since 2010

通用信贷 (UC) 是 2010 年联合政府的一项旗舰政策，将六项“传统”福利整合到每月付款中。 UC 的支付上限为一个家庭中的两个孩子。 2015年，首相戴维·卡梅伦为政府的福利改革辩护，称以前的制度“摧毁了愿望”，而加州大学将“确保工作总是有回报”（Cameron，2015）。九年多的时间和四届议会任期过去了，这些政策尚未全面或按预期推出。福利团体和非政府组织的早期预警系统已经表明了意想不到的后果。公共账目委员会在 2018 年发布的一份报告得出的结论是，加州大学“给它本应帮助的许多索赔人带来了不可接受的困难和困难”。联合国报告员菲利普·阿尔斯顿 (Philip Alston) 报告称，加州大学的索赔人感到被迫“为了避免削弱制裁而从事不适当的低薪临时工作”（Alston，2018）。对于许多女性来说，育儿和其他照顾责任是她们在考虑重返工作岗位或寻求更好的工作时面临的最大障碍。现实情况是，对于低收入父母来说，进入劳动力市场的收益可能有限，但被儿童保育成本和限制其求职范围的时间限制所抵消。 UC 的某些方面已被发现使低收入父母更难获得托儿服务。研究问题：为了了解妇女因普遍信贷和二孩限制而面临的权衡，将探讨三个不同的问题：1）英国政府最近对普遍信贷和工作税收抵免实施二孩限制对生育率有何影响？2）英国最近的福利改革如何影响a）妇女的劳动力供应决策和b）工作质量？ 3) 是否有任何证据表明苏格兰相对于英国其他地区的差别化政策（例如苏格兰儿童补助）正在减轻更广泛的福利改革的不利影响。研究方法：将使用诸如双重差异（DID）分析等尖端准实验方法来确定政策对妇女结果的因果影响以及推动政策预期和非预期后果的福利改革政策的关键特征。研究结果旨在促进有关福利改革的更广泛的政策辩论，并为未来几年的现行政策和制定政策确定具体的基于证据的干预措施。影响：除了为学术文献做出贡献外，目的还在于利用这项研究为未来的政策提供信息。这项工作应该提供对 UC 和二孩限制的一些意外后果的程度的见解。然后，目的是就如何缓解问题和加强福利改革的预期效果做出推断，并提出旨在改善逐步和分阶段转向UC期间结果的建议。

Universal Credit (UC) was a flagship policy of the 2010 Coalition Government, rolling six 'legacy' benefits into one monthly payment. Payments of UC are capped at two children in a family. In 2015, Prime Minister David Cameron defended the Government's welfare reforms, stating that the previous system 'destroyed aspiration' and UC would 'ensure that it always pays to work' (Cameron, 2015). More than nine years and four parliamentary terms later, these policies have yet to be rolled out in full or as intended. Early warning systems from welfare groups and NGOs have indicated unintended consequences. A report released by the Public Accounts Committee in 2018 concluded that UC is "causing unacceptable hardship and difficulties for many of the claimants it was designed to help". UN Rapporteur Philip Alston reported that claimants of UC feel forced to 'take inappropriate low-paid, temporary work just to avoid debilitating sanctions' (Alston, 2018).For many women, childcare and other caring responsibilities are some of the biggest barriers they face when considering returning to work or seeking to move to better jobs. The reality is that for low-income parents, gains from entering the labour market can be limited, offset by childcare costs and time restrictions that limit their job search area. Aspects of UC have been identified that make it harder for low-income parents to access childcare. Research Questions:Three distinct questions will be explored in order to gain understanding of the trade-offs women face as a result of Universal Credit and the two-child limit: 1) How has the UK Government's recent imposition of a two-child limit on Universal Credit and Working Tax Credit impacted on fertility?2) How have recent UK welfare reforms impacted a) on the labour supply decisions of women and b) on job quality? 3) Is there any evidence to suggest that differential policy in Scotland, relative to the rest of the UK, (e.g. the Scottish Child Payment) is mitigating adverse impacts of the wider welfare reforms.Research Methods:Cutting-edge quasi-experimental methods such as difference-in- difference (DID) analysis will be used to identify the causal effects of the policy on outcomes for women and the key features of welfare reform policy that drive the policy's intended and unintended consequences. Findings are intended to contribute to the wider policy debate on welfare reform, and pinpoint specific evidence-based interventions for a live and developing policy over the following years. Impact:In addition to contributing to academic literature, the intention is to use this research to inform future policy. The work should provide insights into the extent of some unintended consequences of UC and the two-child limit. The aim is then to make inferences on how to mitigate problems and strengthen the intended consequences of the welfare reforms and to make recommendations aimed at improving outcomes during the gradual and phased switch to UC.