Developing effective rat control for rural Madagascar landscapes: using individual based modelling to inform strategies

为马达加斯加农村地区制定有效的老鼠控制措施：使用基于个体的模型来制定策略

• 批准号: 2441001
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Aberdeen
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2441001
• 关键词: Developing; effective; rat; control; rural

Across the developing world, food insecurity is greatest in rural areas, where smallholder farms predominate. Increased productivity of such farms has important positive effects on livelihoods and is essential for the global fight against hunger. The development of effective management strategies to reduce crop losses from agricultural pests requires an understanding of how pest populations will respond to control, at both the population and agricultural landscape scale. Rodent pests contribute significantly to food insecurity. Globally, rodents annually eat and spoil cereals that could feed ~280 million people in developing countries alone. They are also important reservoirs for a range of livestock and human diseases. In some countries in Asia and Africa, increased understanding of processes contributing to variation in rodent abundance has led to the successful development of Ecologically Based Rodent Management (EBRM). EBRM targeting community actions at key times of year in specific locations can significantly reduce losses. Although traditionally most actions aim to reduce pest survival (e.g. trap barrier systems), there is increasing interest in contraceptive baits. In Madagascar, undernourishment remains a prevalent problem. Smallholders predominate and rice is the staple food. The black rat, the major rodent pest, is found in all habitats from forest to cultivated areas and villages. Moreover, this species is a reservoir for diseases that can be transmitted to humans and/or livestock (e.g. plague, leptospirosis). EBRM is not presently practiced in Madagascar and there is an opportunity to develop strategies that improve both food security and human and livestock health. Previous studies provide a good base knowledge of the population ecology of the black rat, as well as the epidemiology of several rodent associated diseases. However, there is an urgent need to predict landscape-level responses of populations and diseases to alternative control strategies. For example, removal of individuals through trapping or poisoning may favour increased dispersal of animals from non-control areas, possibly completely negating any benefits from control and also contributing to disease spread. This interdisciplinary project will use existing rodent trapping data and a systems modelling approach to explore management options. Using a recently developed individual-based modelling platform, RangeShifter, which integrates population dynamics, dispersal behaviour and genetics, and can be used to simulate scenarios on spatially explicit landscapes, this project will (1) compare the effectiveness of targeting rat control in different habitats and different seasons, using a model parameterised with existing trapping data and landcover maps,(2) incorporate individual disease status into RangeShifter and investigate the impact of control on the landscape epidemiology of different pathogens, including plague and leptospirosis and (3) test model predictions against field data from control trials.

在整个发展中世界，粮食不安全在农村地区最为严重，那里的小农农场占主导地位。提高这些农场的生产力对生计具有重要的积极影响，对全球消除饥饿至关重要。制定有效的管理战略，以减少农业害虫造成的作物损失，需要了解害虫种群将如何在人口和农业景观规模上对控制作出反应。啮齿类害虫在很大程度上造成粮食不安全。在全球范围内，啮齿动物每年都会吃掉并破坏仅在发展中国家就可以养活约2.8亿人的谷物。它们也是一系列牲畜和人类疾病的重要宿主。在亚洲和非洲的一些国家，由于对啮齿动物数量变化过程的认识不断加深，成功地制定了啮齿动物生态管理（EBRM）。EBRM针对特定地点一年中关键时期的社区行动，可以大大减少损失。虽然传统上大多数行动的目的是减少害虫的存活（如陷阱屏障系统），但人们对避孕诱饵的兴趣越来越大。在马达加斯加，营养不良仍然是一个普遍问题。小农占主导地位，大米是主食。黑鼠是主要的啮齿动物害虫，在从森林到耕地和村庄的所有栖息地都有发现。此外，该物种是可传播给人类和/或牲畜的疾病（例如鼠疫、钩端螺旋体病）的宿主。马达加斯加目前没有实行基于生物多样性的风险管理，因此有机会制定改善粮食安全以及人类和牲畜健康的战略。以往的研究提供了一个很好的基础知识的种群生态学的黑鼠，以及流行病学的几种啮齿动物相关疾病。然而，迫切需要预测人口和疾病对替代控制战略的反应。例如，通过诱捕或投毒的方式转移个体，可能有利于增加动物从非控制区的扩散，可能完全抵消控制带来的任何好处，也有助于疾病的传播。这个跨学科项目将利用现有的啮齿动物诱捕数据和系统建模方法来探索管理方案。利用最近开发的基于个体的建模平台RangeShifter，该平台整合了种群动态，扩散行为和遗传学，并可用于模拟空间明确景观的情景，该项目将（1）使用现有诱捕数据和土地覆盖图参数化的模型，比较不同生境和不同季节的针对性灭鼠效果，（2）将单个疾病状态纳入RangeShifter，并调查控制对不同病原体（包括鼠疫和钩端螺旋体病）的景观流行病学的影响;（3）根据控制试验的现场数据测试模型预测。