Who Defines Terror?: A Quantitative Analysis of Interstate Deliberation on Terrorism

课程/项目名称我的ESRC项目使用计算和定量方法来检查国际恐怖主义话语的前提。通过构建一个由一种模式下的国家和另一种模式下的国家表达的词语或概念组成的联合国一般性辩论发言的双部分社会网络表示，我能够统计地估计国家属性和结构模式在产生国家修辞和沟通风格方面的相对重要性和意义。具体来说，用自举时间指数图模型（BTERGM）对这个通信网络建模，可以估计一个状态在给定许多其他因素的情况下使用特定单词或概念的可能性。首先，我量化了一个国家通过其个人属性使用特定词汇的可能性，包括他们参与恐怖主义话语和参与全球反恐努力的程度。其次，我量化了一个国家的社会、经济和话语网络在推动其言论方面的重要性。例如，这些模型衡量国家贸易和冲突关系对国家表达给定概念的可能性的独立影响。这就有可能断言，重要的贸易伙伴或历史上的对手分别使用某个特定的概念或词，是否会使一个国家或多或少地使用这种修辞。最后，该模型评估了国家审议中的同质性。这包括估计相似或不同的国家在审议恐怖主义时使用相同概念和修辞的趋势。特别是，鉴于两国的宗教人口、经济实力和政治制度相对相似，我估计两国使用相同修辞的效果。这种定量分析以国际关系的社会建构主义理论、批判恐怖主义研究文献的理论框架和哥本哈根学派的证券化理论为指导。这些理论观点中的每一个都为本分析旨在评估和提供对国际恐怖主义话语的更广泛理解的特定假设提供了信息，在这些假设中可以理解结果的重要性。此外，对外交人物的定性访谈可以揭示那些在经验上参与恐怖主义话语的人的主观解释、情绪和经历，否则就必须从国家演讲的内容中推断出来。同时，这些定量的、理论的和定性的研究结果应该阐明历史和当代的重要因素，通过国家审议来塑造我们对“恐怖主义”的理解。

Course/Project title My ESRC project uses computational and quantitative methods to examine the antecedents of international terrorism discourse. By constructing a bipartite social network representation of United Nations General Debate speeches, consisting of states in one mode and the words or concepts they express in the other, I am able to statistically estimate the relative importance and significance of state attributes and structural patterns in producing state rhetoric and communicatory styles. Specifically, modelling this communication network with bootstrapped temporal exponential graph models (BTERGM) allows for the estimation of the likelihood that a state will utilize a particular word or concept given a number of other factors. Firstly, I quantify the likelihood that a state will use a particular word by its individual attributes, including the degree to which they participate in terrorism discourse and their engagement in global counter-terrorism efforts. Secondly, I quantify the importance of a state's social, economic, and discursive networks in driving their rhetoric. For instance, the models measure the independent effect of state trade and conflict relationships on the likelihood of a state expressing a given concept. This makes it possible to assert whether the use of a given concept or word by important trade partners or historical adversaries, respectively, make it more or less likely that a state also uses this rhetoric. Finally, the model assesses for homophily in state deliberation. This involves estimating the tendency for similar or dissimilar states to utilize identical concepts and rhetoric in their deliberation on terrorism. In particular, I estimate the effect that two states will utilize the same rhetoric given the relative similarity of their religious demographics, economic power, and political system.This quantitative analysis is guided by socially constructivist theories of international relations, theoretical frameworks from the Critical Terrorism Studies literature, and the Copenhagen School's Securitization theory. Each of these theoretical perspectives inform the particular hypotheses that this analysis seeks to evaluate and provide a broader understanding of international terrorism discourse within which the significance of the results can be understood. Additionally, qualitative interviews with diplomatic figures can reveal the subjective interpretations, emotions, and experiences of those empirically involved in terrorism discourse that would otherwise have to be inferred from the contents of state speeches. In concert, these quantitative, theoretical, and qualitative findings should shed light on the factors of historical and contemporary importance in shaping our understanding of 'terrorism' through state deliberation.