Who Defines Terror?: A Quantitative Analysis of Interstate Deliberation on Terrorism

我的ESRC项目使用计算和定量方法来研究国际恐怖主义话语的前因。通过构建一个由一种模式中的国家和另一种模式中的词语或概念组成的联合国一般性辩论演讲的双向社交网络表示，我能够统计估计国家属性和结构模式在产生国家修辞和沟通风格中的相对重要性和意义。具体地，利用自举时间指数图模型（BTERGM）对该通信网络进行建模允许估计状态将利用给定多个其他因素的特定词或概念的可能性。首先，我量化的可能性，一个国家将使用一个特定的词，其个别属性，包括在何种程度上，他们参与恐怖主义的话语和他们在全球反恐努力的参与。其次，我量化了一个国家的社会，经济和话语网络在推动他们的言论的重要性。例如，这些模型衡量国家贸易和冲突关系对国家表达给定概念的可能性的独立影响。这就有可能断定，重要的贸易伙伴或历史上的对手分别使用某个特定的概念或词语，是否会使一个国家也或多或少地使用这种修辞。最后，该模型评估同质性在国家审议。这涉及估计类似或不同国家在审议恐怖主义问题时使用相同概念和言论的趋势。特别是，我估计的效果，两个国家将利用相同的修辞考虑到他们的宗教人口，经济实力和政治system.This定量分析的相对相似性是由社会建构主义理论的国际关系，从批判恐怖主义研究文献的理论框架，和哥本哈根学派的安全化理论。每一个这些理论的角度通知特定的假设，这种分析试图评估和提供一个更广泛的理解国际恐怖主义的话语，其中的意义可以理解的结果。此外，对外交人物的定性采访可以揭示那些经验上参与恐怖主义话语的人的主观解释、情感和经历，否则这些都必须从国家演讲的内容中推断出来。总之，这些定量、理论和定性的研究结果应该揭示历史和当代重要因素，以通过国家审议来塑造我们对“恐怖主义”的理解。

Course/Project title My ESRC project uses computational and quantitative methods to examine the antecedents of international terrorism discourse. By constructing a bipartite social network representation of United Nations General Debate speeches, consisting of states in one mode and the words or concepts they express in the other, I am able to statistically estimate the relative importance and significance of state attributes and structural patterns in producing state rhetoric and communicatory styles. Specifically, modelling this communication network with bootstrapped temporal exponential graph models (BTERGM) allows for the estimation of the likelihood that a state will utilize a particular word or concept given a number of other factors. Firstly, I quantify the likelihood that a state will use a particular word by its individual attributes, including the degree to which they participate in terrorism discourse and their engagement in global counter-terrorism efforts. Secondly, I quantify the importance of a state's social, economic, and discursive networks in driving their rhetoric. For instance, the models measure the independent effect of state trade and conflict relationships on the likelihood of a state expressing a given concept. This makes it possible to assert whether the use of a given concept or word by important trade partners or historical adversaries, respectively, make it more or less likely that a state also uses this rhetoric. Finally, the model assesses for homophily in state deliberation. This involves estimating the tendency for similar or dissimilar states to utilize identical concepts and rhetoric in their deliberation on terrorism. In particular, I estimate the effect that two states will utilize the same rhetoric given the relative similarity of their religious demographics, economic power, and political system.This quantitative analysis is guided by socially constructivist theories of international relations, theoretical frameworks from the Critical Terrorism Studies literature, and the Copenhagen School's Securitization theory. Each of these theoretical perspectives inform the particular hypotheses that this analysis seeks to evaluate and provide a broader understanding of international terrorism discourse within which the significance of the results can be understood. Additionally, qualitative interviews with diplomatic figures can reveal the subjective interpretations, emotions, and experiences of those empirically involved in terrorism discourse that would otherwise have to be inferred from the contents of state speeches. In concert, these quantitative, theoretical, and qualitative findings should shed light on the factors of historical and contemporary importance in shaping our understanding of 'terrorism' through state deliberation.