Who Defines Terror?: A Quantitative Analysis of Interstate Deliberation on Terrorism

课程/项目标题我的ESRC项目使用计算和定量方法来检查国际恐怖主义话语的前因。通过构建联合国一般性辩论发言的两方社会网络，由一种模式的国家和以另一种模式表达的词语或概念组成，我能够从统计上估计国家属性和结构模式在产生国家修辞和沟通风格方面的相对重要性和意义。具体地说，使用自举时间指数图模型(BTERGM)对该通信网络进行建模允许在给定许多其他因素的情况下估计状态将使用特定单词或概念的可能性。首先，我量化了一个国家使用特定词语的可能性，包括它的个别属性，包括它们参与恐怖主义言论的程度和它们参与全球反恐努力的程度。其次，我量化了一个国家的社会、经济和话语网络在推动他们的言论方面的重要性。例如，这些模型衡量了国家贸易和冲突关系对一个国家表达特定概念的可能性的独立影响。这使得可以断言，重要的贸易伙伴或历史对手分别使用某个概念或词语，是否会使一个国家或多或少也使用这种修辞。最后，该模型在国家审议中评估同质性。这涉及到估计相似或不同国家在审议恐怖主义问题时使用相同概念和言辞的倾向。特别是，鉴于两国的宗教人口、经济实力和政治制度相对相似，我估计了两国将使用相同修辞的效果。这一定量分析是以国际关系的社会建构主义理论、批评恐怖主义研究文献中的理论框架和哥本哈根学派的证券化理论为指导的。这些理论观点中的每一个都为特定的假设提供了信息，即这一分析旨在评估和提供对国际恐怖主义话语的更广泛的理解，在这种理解中可以理解结果的意义。此外，对外交人士的定性采访可以揭示那些经验性地参与恐怖主义言论的人的主观解释、情绪和经历，否则这些必须从国家演讲的内容中推断出来。总而言之，这些定量的、理论的和定性的发现应该有助于揭示历史和当代的重要因素，这些因素有助于我们通过国家深思熟虑来形成对“恐怖主义”的理解。

Course/Project title My ESRC project uses computational and quantitative methods to examine the antecedents of international terrorism discourse. By constructing a bipartite social network representation of United Nations General Debate speeches, consisting of states in one mode and the words or concepts they express in the other, I am able to statistically estimate the relative importance and significance of state attributes and structural patterns in producing state rhetoric and communicatory styles. Specifically, modelling this communication network with bootstrapped temporal exponential graph models (BTERGM) allows for the estimation of the likelihood that a state will utilize a particular word or concept given a number of other factors. Firstly, I quantify the likelihood that a state will use a particular word by its individual attributes, including the degree to which they participate in terrorism discourse and their engagement in global counter-terrorism efforts. Secondly, I quantify the importance of a state's social, economic, and discursive networks in driving their rhetoric. For instance, the models measure the independent effect of state trade and conflict relationships on the likelihood of a state expressing a given concept. This makes it possible to assert whether the use of a given concept or word by important trade partners or historical adversaries, respectively, make it more or less likely that a state also uses this rhetoric. Finally, the model assesses for homophily in state deliberation. This involves estimating the tendency for similar or dissimilar states to utilize identical concepts and rhetoric in their deliberation on terrorism. In particular, I estimate the effect that two states will utilize the same rhetoric given the relative similarity of their religious demographics, economic power, and political system.This quantitative analysis is guided by socially constructivist theories of international relations, theoretical frameworks from the Critical Terrorism Studies literature, and the Copenhagen School's Securitization theory. Each of these theoretical perspectives inform the particular hypotheses that this analysis seeks to evaluate and provide a broader understanding of international terrorism discourse within which the significance of the results can be understood. Additionally, qualitative interviews with diplomatic figures can reveal the subjective interpretations, emotions, and experiences of those empirically involved in terrorism discourse that would otherwise have to be inferred from the contents of state speeches. In concert, these quantitative, theoretical, and qualitative findings should shed light on the factors of historical and contemporary importance in shaping our understanding of 'terrorism' through state deliberation.