Who Defines Terror?: A Quantitative Analysis of Interstate Deliberation on Terrorism

谁定义了恐怖主义？：州际恐怖主义审议的定量分析

• 批准号: 2479822
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2479822
• 关键词: Who; Defines; Terror; Quantitative; Analysis

Course/Project title My ESRC project uses computational and quantitative methods to examine the antecedents of international terrorism discourse. By constructing a bipartite social network representation of United Nations General Debate speeches, consisting of states in one mode and the words or concepts they express in the other, I am able to statistically estimate the relative importance and significance of state attributes and structural patterns in producing state rhetoric and communicatory styles. Specifically, modelling this communication network with bootstrapped temporal exponential graph models (BTERGM) allows for the estimation of the likelihood that a state will utilize a particular word or concept given a number of other factors. Firstly, I quantify the likelihood that a state will use a particular word by its individual attributes, including the degree to which they participate in terrorism discourse and their engagement in global counter-terrorism efforts. Secondly, I quantify the importance of a state's social, economic, and discursive networks in driving their rhetoric. For instance, the models measure the independent effect of state trade and conflict relationships on the likelihood of a state expressing a given concept. This makes it possible to assert whether the use of a given concept or word by important trade partners or historical adversaries, respectively, make it more or less likely that a state also uses this rhetoric. Finally, the model assesses for homophily in state deliberation. This involves estimating the tendency for similar or dissimilar states to utilize identical concepts and rhetoric in their deliberation on terrorism. In particular, I estimate the effect that two states will utilize the same rhetoric given the relative similarity of their religious demographics, economic power, and political system.This quantitative analysis is guided by socially constructivist theories of international relations, theoretical frameworks from the Critical Terrorism Studies literature, and the Copenhagen School's Securitization theory. Each of these theoretical perspectives inform the particular hypotheses that this analysis seeks to evaluate and provide a broader understanding of international terrorism discourse within which the significance of the results can be understood. Additionally, qualitative interviews with diplomatic figures can reveal the subjective interpretations, emotions, and experiences of those empirically involved in terrorism discourse that would otherwise have to be inferred from the contents of state speeches. In concert, these quantitative, theoretical, and qualitative findings should shed light on the factors of historical and contemporary importance in shaping our understanding of 'terrorism' through state deliberation.

课程/项目标题 我的 ESRC 项目使用计算和定量方法来研究国际恐怖主义话语的前因。通过构建联合国一般性辩论演讲的双向社交网络表示，由一种模式下的国家和它们在另一种模式下表达的词语或概念组成，我能够统计估计国家属性和结构模式在产生国家修辞和沟通风格方面的相对重要性和意义。具体来说，使用自举时间指数图模型 (BTERGM) 对该通信网络进行建模，可以在给定许多其他因素的情况下估计状态将使用特定单词或概念的可能性。首先，我根据一个国家的个体属性来量化一个国家使用特定词语的可能性，包括他们参与恐怖主义话语的程度以及他们参与全球反恐努力的程度。其次，我量化了一个国家的社会、经济和话语网络在推动其言论方面的重要性。例如，这些模型衡量国家贸易和冲突关系对国家表达给定概念的可能性的独立影响。这使得可以断言重要贸易伙伴或历史对手分别使用特定概念或词语是否使一个国家也使用这种言论的可能性更大或更小。最后，该模型评估国家审议中的同质性。这涉及估计相似或不同国家在审议恐怖主义问题时使用相同概念和言论的倾向。特别是，鉴于宗教人口、经济实力和政治制度的相对相似性，我估计了两个国家将使用相同言论的效果。这种定量分析以国际关系的社会建构主义理论、批判恐怖主义研究文献的理论框架以及哥本哈根学派的安全化理论为指导。这些理论观点中的每一个都提供了特定的假设，本分析旨在评估并提供对国际恐怖主义话语的更广泛的理解，从而可以理解结果的重要性。此外，对外交人物的定性采访可以揭示那些实际参与恐怖主义话语的人的主观解释、情感和经历，否则这些就必须从国家演讲的内容中推断出来。总之，这些定量、理论和定性的发现应该阐明在通过国家审议塑造我们对“恐怖主义”的理解时具有历史和当代重要性的因素。