Sustainably securing the future of food: will Chinese investments in the Global South hinder or help?

本研究提出以下问题：中国在农业领域的海外投资将如何影响受援国的粮食安全和农业生物多样性？中国改善全球粮食供应和刺激发展的愿望可以为保障发展中国家的可持续农业和粮食安全提供途径。中国的“一带一路”倡议将最大的新兴经济体与全球南方连接起来，包括雄心勃勃的陆地基础设施和海上航线。中国的资金支持涵盖基础设施、能源、矿业和农业。中国的海外投资是增强还是破坏了受援国的生物多样性和粮食安全，目前还没有定论。我提出的研究旨在通过调查中国在全球南方的农业投资对可持续性的影响来解决这个难题。我的调查追求以下目标：1。确定参与中国海外农业项目的国家和非国家行为体及其各自促进可持续农业的机构。2. 研究中国投资项目背后的决策过程和系统驱动因素：是什么决定了受援国的选择、项目的选择和农业生产体系？3. 衡量中国海外农业投资对两个受援国实施可持续发展目标的影响：这些投资如何帮助或阻碍目标2（零饥饿）和目标15（陆地上的生命）的实现？通过混合方法研究，包括定量和定性数据收集和分析，研究将从定量分析中国投资与农业生物多样性之间的关系开始。GIS技术将用于创建一个关于柬埔寨和老挝农业生物多样性的新数据集，并建立一个关于中国在这些国家农业投资项目的综合数据集。在建立农业生物多样性和中国在受援国农业投资的原始数据库的基础上，我将使用计量经济学技术来确定影响投资项目对农业生物多样性和粮食安全影响的因素。定量研究结果将帮助我对中国投资项目影响可持续发展的因果过程提出假设，并通过实地调查确定项目进行深入的案例研究。定性阶段将包括对参与中国和受援国提名项目的从业人员进行深入访谈。我将根据定量结果选择案例，确定中国投资在当地影响可持续发展的因果过程，并比较积极影响与无效影响或消极影响的案例。定性分析将揭示中国投资如何在不同背景下影响农业生物多样性和粮食安全。在详细介绍一种将地理空间分析与计量经济学和定性方法相结合的创新混合方法时，我的研究弥合了定性和定量的鸿沟，为中国海外农业投资的可持续性影响提供了一个全面的、多尺度的理解。该调查通过调查外国投资对实现可持续发展目标的影响，揭示了中国海外农业投资的决策过程，从而在实证上弥补了一个重要的空白。在寻求确定保护生态系统和粮食安全的最佳环境和社会实践的过程中，研究结果可以为中国国有企业、国家政府和其他关键利益相关者提供政策启示，以提高外国农业投资的可持续性。

This research proposes to ask the following question: how will China's overseas investments in the agricultural sector impact food security and agrobiodiversity in recipient nations? China's aspirations to improve global food supply and stimulate development could provide paths for safeguarding sustainable agriculture and food security in developing countries. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) connects the largest emerging economy with the Global South and involves ambitious land infrastructure and maritime routes. China's financial support encompasses infrastructure, energy, mining, and agriculture. Whether China's overseas investments will enhance or dissipate biodiversity and food security in recipient nations remains unresolved. My proposed research seeks to address this puzzle by investigating the sustainability impact of China's agricultural investments in the Global South. My investigation pursues the following objectives: 1. To identify the state and non-state actors involved in Chinese overseas agricultural projects and their respective agency in promoting sustainable agriculture. 2. To investigate the decision-making processes and systemic drivers behind China's investment projects: what determines the recipient nations selected, the choice of projects and agricultural production systems? 3. To measure the impact of China's overseas agricultural investments on the implementation of the SDGs in the two recipient countries: how do the investments help or hinder the achievement of: Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) and Goal 15(Life on Land)? Through mixed-methods research involving quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis, the research will begin by quantitatively analysing the relationship between Chinese investments and agrobiodiversity. GIS techniques will be used to create a novel dataset on agrobiodiversity in Cambodia and Laos and build a comprehensive dataset on China's agricultural investment projects in these nations. Upon building original databases of agrobiodiversity and Chinese agricultural investments across the recipient nations, I will use econometric techniques to identify the factors conditioning the impact of investment projects upon agrobiodiversity and food security. The quantitative findings will assist me in formulating hypotheses on the causal processes through which Chinese investment projects impact sustainable development and in identifying projects for in-depth case studies through fieldwork. The qualitative stage will involve in-depth interviews with practitioners involved in the nominated projects in China and the recipient nations. I will select cases based on quantitative results and identify the causal processes through which Chinese investments impact sustainable development in the local context and compare cases of positive against null or negative impact. The qualitative analysis will reveal how Chinese investments affect agrobiodiversity and food security across different contexts. In detailing an innovative mixed-methodology combining geospatial analysis with econometrics and qualitative methods, my research bridges a qualitative-quantitative divide, contributing a comprehensive, multi-scalar understanding of the sustainability impact of China's overseas agricultural investments. The investigation empirically addresses an important gap by unpacking the lesser understood decision-making processes of China's overseas agricultural investments through investigating the influence of foreign investments on attaining SDGs. In seeking to identify the best environmental and social practices for safeguarding ecosystems and food security, the findings can offer policy implications for Chinese SOEs, national governments and other key stakeholders for improving sustainability in foreign agricultural investments.