Climate Dynamics: Precursors of tipping points in a rapidly changing climate (Ref: 4342-6)

气候动力学：快速变化的气候中临界点的前兆（参考：4342-6）

• 批准号: 2696917
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2696917
• 关键词: Climate; Dynamics; Precursors; tipping; points

This project will aim to find precursors to tipping points through analysis of CMIP6 model data. To achieve this, first a reliable method for detecting tipping events in the CMIP6 data would be developed. The first stage of this project will focus on developing an algorithm to detect abrupt shifts in data through machine learning techniques. This algorithm may then be used to detect tipping events in future projections for a chosen tipping element. Once tipping events have been identified, statistical analysis will be performed and used to find potential precursors to tipping points within the data. Identified precursors can then be tested for reliability across multiple models and used to assess the risk of future tipping events occurring for a chosen tipping element.

该项目的目的是通过分析CMIP6模型数据来找到倾倒点的前体。为了实现这一目标，首先将开发一种可靠的方法来检测CMIP6数据中的小费事件。该项目的第一阶段将着重于开发一种算法，以通过机器学习技术检测数据突然变化。然后，该算法可用于检测未来预测的小费事件，以获取所选小费元素。一旦确定了小费事件，将进行统计分析，并用于找到数据中倾斜点的潜在前体。然后可以对确定的前体进行多个模型的可靠性测试，并用于评估所选小费元件发生的未来小费事件的风险。