Mathematical modelling of Atlantic salmon migration, foraging, and growth with long-term observational data and high-resolution 3D ocean models to...

利用长期观测数据和高分辨率 3D 海洋模型对大西洋鲑鱼迁徙、觅食和生长进行数学建模，以...

• 批准号: 2726125
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Strathclyde
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2726125
• 关键词: Mathematical; modelling; Atlantic; salmon; migration

Mathematical modelling of Atlantic salmon migration, foraging, and growth with long-term observational data and high-resolution 3D ocean models to test hypotheses about how climate change, ocean currents, and plankton ecology come together to shape the salmon's past and futureAtlantic salmon are an important economic and cultural resource, whose life cycle relies upon ecological interactions across both freshwater and marine ecosystems. In recent decades populations of salmon have declined across their natural range. Marine surveys have indicated that post-smolt salmon from multiple southern European stocks coalesce at an oceanographic feature on the continental shelf edge (Wyville Thomson Ridge, WTR) in early summer prior to moving north towards their Arctic feeding grounds in the Norwegian Sea. Past this migratory convergence, salmon appear to enter one of two larger-scale current systems, the Norwegian coastal current or the central Norwegian Sea, but it is unclear how this decision, which may be of critical importance in shaping the outcome of their marine phase, is determined. This convergence at the WTR provides a common end point around which to organise resource modelling for salmon stocks from multiple start points (river mouths). By modelling interannual variation in prey fields across the continental shelf between the start points and end point of post-smolt migration, survival probability (as assessed through time series of salmon returns by river) might be mapped to prey fields and their environmental drivers (as assessed through Continuous Plankton Recorder zooplankton data, in conjunction with high-resolution ocean models). The main goal of this project is to develop an agent-based model for the 3-month post-smolt period, and to examine the importance of ocean transport systems and the resulting variability in prey fields in determining past patterns of survival. This project will contribute to a coordinated international efforts in determining mechanisms behind salmon mortality, and enable forecasting of survival prospects to guide management and direct policy.

利用长期观测数据和高分辨率3D海洋模型对大西洋三文鱼的迁徙、觅食和生长进行数学建模，以检验有关气候变化、洋流和浮游生物生态如何共同塑造三文鱼的过去和未来的假设。大西洋三文鱼是一种重要的经济和文化资源，其生命周期依赖于淡水和海洋生态系统之间的生态相互作用。近几十年来，鲑鱼的数量在其自然范围内都有所下降。海洋调查表明，来自多个南欧种群的三文鱼在初夏汇聚在大陆架边缘(Wyville Thomson Ridge，WTR)的一个海洋学特征处，然后向北移动到挪威海的北极觅食地。在这种迁徙汇聚之后，鲑鱼似乎进入了两个更大规模的洋流系统之一--挪威沿海洋流或挪威海中部，但尚不清楚这一决定是如何决定的，这可能对决定其海洋阶段的结果至关重要。WTR的这种汇聚提供了一个共同的终点，围绕这个终点，可以从多个起点(河口)组织鲑鱼种群的资源建模。通过模拟跨大陆架捕食场在鲑鱼后迁徙起点和终点之间的年际变化，可以绘制捕食场及其环境驱动因素的生存概率图(通过河流鲑鱼回流的时间序列进行评估)(通过连续浮游生物记录仪浮游动物数据结合高分辨率海洋模型进行评估)。该项目的主要目标是开发一个基于代理人的模型，用于后三个月的生存模式，并审查海洋运输系统的重要性以及由此产生的猎物领域在决定过去生存模式方面的可变性。该项目将有助于协调国际努力，确定鲑鱼死亡背后的机制，并能够预测生存前景，以指导管理和指导政策。