Modelling the effectiveness of antibiotic mass administration in acute humanitarian crises

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

TBCPneumonia is the single largest infectious cause of death in children worldwide, particularly in humanitarian emergencies. Recently, the WHO recommended Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of Azithromycin to children in regions with high mortality but concerns regarding the potential to select for resistance have led to limited uptake. Combining MDA with pneumococcal vaccination could limit this risk and thus help reduce pneumonia mortality in crises. Working closely with collaborators at our field sites including Somaliland, the Gambia and Vietnam as well as MSF the project will see the successful applicant further the understanding of the complex interdependencies in lung health in humanitarian crises and learn and apply and range of advanced analytical techniques to estimate the benefits and risks of a combined PCV and MDA programme. These will include Bayesian statistics to estimate the preventable disease burden and mathematical modelling to estimate the dynamic effects of disease prevention and resistance acquisition following a combined MDA and pneumococcal vaccination campaign.