Public Expertise, Scientific Evidence, and Political Decision-making: Statistical and Public Policy Perspectives

新型冠状病毒大流行令公共政策制定过程中长期存在的一些潜在紧张关系更加凸显。其中包括：专业知识的性质及其对决策过程的影响;数据和证据在决策中的适当作用;以及如何以意味着“良好政治”的方式最好地平衡政治需要也将导致“良好政策”。科学涉及复杂性、概率和风险建模。政治依赖于对确定性的预测。那么，当科学知识固有的模糊性与政治的务实现实相对抗时，会发生什么呢？该项目将通过详细研究白厅内外政策的证据建立过程如何运作来调查这个问题。这一点特别重要，因为新技术，如使用先进的统计和机器学习，在决策中变得普遍。目前政策决定中的有关例子，包括项目内的定量技术的发展，将是审查这些问题的核心。

The COVID pandemic has brought into sharper relief some of the underlying tensions that have long existed in the making of public policy. Amongst these are: the nature of expertise and its impact on policymaking processes; the appropriate role for data and evidence in decision-making; and how best to balance political imperatives in ways that mean 'good politics' will also lead to 'good policy'. Science deals in complexity, probability, and the modelling of risk. Politics relies on the projection of certainty. What happens, then, when the inherent ambiguity of scientific knowledge confronts the pragmatic realities of politics? This project will investigate that question by examining in detail how the evidence-building process for policy works within Whitehall and beyond. This is of particular importance as new technologies, such as the use of advanced statistics and machine learning, become prevalent in policy decisions. Relevant examples from current policy decisions, including the development of quantitative techniques within the project, will be central to examining such questions.