The Effects of Generational Differences on the Formation Redistribution Preferences and Electoral Behaviour in Western Europe

摘要（不超过500字）西欧民主国家经济不平等的加剧引发了大部分选民的政策和选举偏好的重大冲击（Piketty 2020）。然而，目前尚不清楚这种日益严重的经济不安全感是否会加剧再分配偏好，并将选民推向社会民主党。为什么不断上升的经济不平等没有促进对经济再分配的更高需求，而是推动对经济不平等的保守反应的总体趋势仍然存在争议（Hopkin 2020; Norris和Inglehart 2019），年轻人似乎对经济持批评态度，越来越支持挑战者政党（Milburn 2019; Giugni和Grasso 2021）。相关的学术研究通常将再分配偏好的形成解释为个人经济环境变化的影响，前者是影响投票选择的干预因素（Meltzer and Richard 1981; Rueda and Stegmueller 2019）。然而，经济投票的论点忽视了经济观点可能在多大程度上取决于选民的政治社会化经验（Inglehart and Abramson 1994; Inglehart 2008; Grasso et al. 2019）。这项研究通过借鉴世代政治的政治社会化视角来增强这种最先进的技术。特别是，它审查了跨代的影响，暴露在经济不安全的青年政策和选举偏好，并评估在何种程度上再分配偏好的事项在主流和挑战者之间的选举选择的政党。该项目的主要研究问题是：（一）在成年早期的经济不安全的经验有一个持久的影响再分配的偏好，特别是在经济困难时期？(ii)与在不同社会经济环境中长大的人相比，年轻时经历过经济不安全的人的选举选择是否更受再分配偏好的驱动？其目的是评估经济不安全的形成经验是否对经济困难时期的态度产生持久影响，以及经历过早期经济不安全的人是否比没有经历过的人更倾向于投票给挑战者。为了解决这些问题，我将实施一个分层的周期队列分析与汇总数据的个人层面的偏好，从几个西欧民主国家和测试的影响，再分配偏好的选举选择使用联合调查实验在两个关键的国家的情况下，英国和意大利。这项研究提供了一个原始的贡献，围绕不平等的政治影响的辩论，启发的重要性，考虑形成的经验，作为一个竞争对手的再分配偏好和投票行为的形成解释。它将成为解释西欧目前正在进行的民主政治转型的有关方面的一种相关知识。

Summary (no more than 500 words) The rise of economic inequalities in Western European democracies has provoked significant shocks in the policy and electoral preferences of large shares of the electorates (Piketty 2020). However, it remains unclear whether such rising economic insecurity heightens redistribution preferences and drives voters towards social democratic parties. Why rising economic inequalities do not foster a higher demand for economic redistribution and instead drive a general tendency towards conservative reactions to economic inequalities remains debated (Hopkin 2020; Norris and Inglehart 2019), and young people appear critical of the economy and increasingly supportive of challenger parties (Milburn 2019; Giugni and Grasso 2021). The relevant scholarship usually explains the formation of redistribution preferences as an effect of changes in personal economic circumstances, the former being the intervening factors shaping vote choice (Meltzer and Richard 1981; Rueda and Stegmueller 2019). Economic voting arguments nevertheless overlook the extent to which economic views may depend on the experience of political socialisation of voters (Inglehart and Abramson 1994; Inglehart 2008; Grasso et al. 2019). This research enhances this state-of-the-art by drawing on a political socialisation perspective of generational politics. In particular, it examines the cross-generational effects of exposure to economic insecurity during youth on policy and electoral preferences and assesses the extent to which redistribution preferences matter in the electoral choice between a mainstream and a challenger party. The project is informed by main research questions: (i) does the experience of economic insecurity during early adulthood have a lasting effect on redistribution preferences, especially during periods of economic hardship? (ii) do redistribution preferences drive the electoral choice of people who experienced economic insecurity in their youth more than people who grew up in a different socioeconomic context? The aim is to assess if the formative experience of economic insecurity has an enduring effect on attitudes during periods of economic hardship and if people who experienced early economic insecurity have a higher propensity to vote challenger parties than people who did not. To address these questions, I will implement a Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort analysis with pooled data on individual-level preferences from several Western European democracies and test the effect of redistribution preferences on electoral choice using conjoint survey experiments fielded in two crucial country cases, the United Kingdom and Italy.This research provides an original contribution to the debate around the political effects of inequalities, enlightening the importance of considering formative experiences as a rival explanation of the formation of redistribution preferences and voting behaviour. It will constitute a relevant piece of knowledge to explain relevant aspects of the currently ongoing political transformation of democracy in Western Europe.