Economics of decarbonisation / The unusable wealth of nations: Petrostates and macroeconomic transition risks in the Persian Gulf region

脱碳经济学/国家无法使用的财富：石油国家和波斯湾地区的宏观经济转型风险

• 批准号: 2751775
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2751775
• 关键词: Economics; decarbonisation; unusable; wealth; nations

To achieve the Paris Agreement, the world must reduce fossil fuel consumption dramatically over the next few decades. However, the reduced global demand for fossil fuels will likely result in "unanticipated or premature write-downs, devaluations, or conversion to liabilities" - otherwise known as stranded assets. This could have serious implications for petrostates, many of which suffer from significant macroeconomic challenges, low human development levels and are heavily dependent on fossil fuel rents for economic development (i.e., transition risk). Given the myriad of existing political economy challenges that are often present within petrostates (i.e., low human development, weak institutions, macroeconomic instability, etc), a revenue shock in the form stranded assets could generate serious implications for these countries and their societies. Therefore, from a domestic economic and human welfare standpoint, this topic is extremely important. Moreover, given the sheer size of these states' fossil fuel endowments and their relatively significant geopolitical influence, their actions are also likely to have significant implications for the rest of the world. Therefore, at a systematic level, the extent to which these states are exposed to transition risk and how they will manage their remaining fossil fuel assets will likely have serious consequences for the net-zero transition. This poses the question: What set of economic policies and mechanisms can reduce the transition risk in petrostates, while also ensuring compliance with their international obligations under the Paris Climate Agreement? To answer this question, the thesis will develop new analytical frameworks and methods to measure, compare, and model transition risk in petrostates. A subset of these countries will also be selected as case-studies and their economic responses to transition risk will be carefully analysed, modelled, and evaluated. The goal is to identify the policy packages and roadmaps which could enable states to pursue risk mitigation and decarbonisation strategies simultaneously and efficiently.

为了实现《巴黎协定》，世界必须在未来几十年大幅减少化石燃料的消耗。然而，全球对化石燃料需求的减少可能会导致“意外或过早的减记、贬值或转化为负债”——也就是所谓的搁浅资产。这可能对石油国家产生严重影响，其中许多国家面临重大宏观经济挑战，人类发展水平低，经济发展严重依赖化石燃料租金（即转型风险）。考虑到石油国家内部经常存在的无数政治经济挑战（即人类发展水平低、制度薄弱、宏观经济不稳定等），资产搁浅形式的收入冲击可能会对这些国家及其社会产生严重影响。因此，从国内经济和人类福利的角度来看，这个话题是极其重要的。此外，考虑到这些国家化石燃料禀赋的庞大规模及其相对重要的地缘政治影响力，它们的行动也可能对世界其他地区产生重大影响。因此，在系统层面上，这些州面临转型风险的程度以及它们将如何管理剩余的化石燃料资产，可能会对净零转型产生严重后果。这就提出了一个问题：什么样的经济政策和机制可以降低石油国家的转型风险，同时确保遵守《巴黎气候协定》下的国际义务？为了回答这个问题，本文将开发新的分析框架和方法来衡量、比较和模拟石油国家的转型风险。还将选择其中一部分国家作为个案研究，仔细分析、模拟和评价它们对转型风险的经济反应。目标是确定一揽子政策和路线图，使各国能够同时有效地实施减轻风险和脱碳战略。