Exploring Paths to Differential Disability Trajectories

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究的目的是检查导致晚年长期残疾轨迹的因果途径。该项目将加强我们对老年人如何随着时间的推移而不同地经历残疾的理解，并将探索在美国观察到的残疾下降的机制。人口和社会经济因素对残疾程度和过渡具有高度预测性。此外，个体内特征和个体外因素被假设为减轻这些关系，尽管这些影响很少被测试。使用以生命历程为中心的方法和已知的残疾过程的理论，我将首先使用潜在的类分析，以确定最有预测力的差异残疾轨迹在老年人的慢性条件。接下来，我将结合使用潜在的增长曲线来测试从疾病到残疾的途径中的个体内特征和个体外因素的影响。最后，我将使用事件历史分析来探讨死亡率作为一种选择性和竞争性力量的作用，随着时间的推移，与残疾相比。队列的影响将是本项目中最重要的，因为这些影响说明了促进残疾下降趋势的因素。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The objective of this research is to examine the causal pathways leading to long term disability trajectories in later life. The project will enhance our understanding of how older adults experience disability differentially over time and will explore the mechanisms at work in the observed disability declines in the U.S. among this age group. Demographic and socioeconomic factors are highly predictive of both disability level and transition. In addition, intra-individual characteristics and extra-individual factors are hypothesized to mitigate these relationships, although these effects have rarely been tested. Using a life course centered approach and known theory on the disablement process, I will first use latent class analysis to determine the chronic conditions most predictive of differential disability trajectories in older adulthood. Next, I will incorporate the use of latent growth curves to test the effects of intra-individual characteristics and extra-individual factors in the pathway from disease to disability. Finally, I will use event history analysis to explore the role of mortality both as a selective and competing force in comparison to disability over time. The effects of cohort will be of primary importance in this project, since these effects speak to factors fueling trends in disability decline.