The Impact of Uncertainty on Zero-Emission Aircraft Design

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As the aviation industry is looking to reduce its climate footprint, progress is hindered by a lack of consensus on which pathways are most likely to lead to fast, impactful results. This is underpinned by a discrepancy in views regarding the timeframes, costs and climate effects associated with the development and implementation of novel aviation technologies and fuels, amongst other factors. The discrepancy in views, in turn, is caused by the absence of a formalised way of dealing with aviation-related uncertainties, which are present at all scales within the aviation system.The key objective of the project is the identification and quantification of uncertainties within the aviation industry in a systematic manner, with a view to creating an uncertainty assessment framework that could be used in the development of roadmaps to achieve net zero aviation by 2050.The project aims to understand and categorise the main types of uncertainty that are present within aviation through the analysis of historical and literature-based case studies concerning the development of aviation technologies. Metrics will be developed to assess the impact of each uncertainty type in a manner that enables different types of uncertainties to be compared despite their different characteristics. In parallel, comprehensive graphs outlining interactions between the main stakeholders involved in the aviation system, together with the technical and socioeconomical factors that drive their actions, will be created. Uncertainties will be mapped on these graphs in order to understand their propagation throughout the system at different scales, as well as the way each type of uncertainty influences the others.By quantifying the effect of each uncertainty in isolation, together with the effect of interactions between multiple uncertainty types, their overall impact on the design, development and implementation of new aviation technologies will be determined. This could serve to highlight the combinations of technological, operations and policy strategies that are most likely to succeed in reducing aviation-related emissions in a timely, cost-effective and high-impact manner.