PREDICTORS OF ADOLESCENT ECSTASY USE IN THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF PARENTS AND YOUTH

描述（由申请人提供）：在过去十年中，美国和其他国家的摇头丸使用流行率有所增加。特别是在青少年和年轻人中。预测青少年今后使用摇头丸的潜在决定因素尚未得到充分研究。具体而言，缺乏旨在控制时间顺序和估计各种因素预测摇头丸使用风险增加的程度的纵向研究。为了解决这些差距，拟议的研究旨在：1）测试青春期摇头丸使用的流行率和发生率是否随时间的推移与人口和地理变量有关; 2）测试以前的越轨行为，以前的高感觉寻求得分和以前的其他药物使用是否预测青少年随后的摇头丸使用; 3）测试是否以前的低水平的父母监督和高水平的同龄人摇头丸使用预测随后的摇头丸在青少年中使用; 4）测试青少年对摇头丸使用的态度和信念的变化，并测试是否接触抗摇头丸，药物媒体宣传可能影响了青少年对摇头丸使用的态度。来自全国父母和青少年调查（NSPY）的纵向数据，这是一项代表美国青少年（9-18岁）的流行病学研究，将用于解决这些目标。在初步探索性数据分析后，我们将通过横截面和纵向逻辑回归模型分析数据，以解决每个特定目标。首先，我们将估计摇头丸使用流行率和发生率与人口统计学（年龄、性别、种族/族裔）之间的关系，然后，我们将使用交替逻辑回归检验是否有证据表明该国各地区青少年摇头丸使用的聚集性。使用纵向回归边际模型，我们将测试是否以前的越轨行为，高感觉寻求分数和高水平的其他药物使用预测随后的摇头丸青少年中，以及检查是否较低水平的父母监控和高水平的同龄人摇头丸使用预测随后的摇头丸青少年中使用。逻辑回归模型将检验青少年对摇头丸使用的态度和信念的变化，并检验接触禁毒媒体运动是否影响青少年对摇头丸使用的态度。最后，我们相信，我们的研究将有助于更好地了解摇头丸使用的潜在决定因素。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): During the past decade the prevalence of ecstasy use has increased in the U.S. and in other countries. particularly among adolescents and young adults. Potential determinants that predict future ecstasy use in adolescence are understudied. Specifically, there is a lack of longitudinal research designed to control temporal sequencing and estimate the extent to which factors predict increased risk of ecstasy use. To address these gaps, the proposed study aims to: 1) test if the prevalence and incidence of ecstasy use in adolescence vary in relation to demographic and geographic variables over time; 2) test whether previous deviant behaviors, previous high sensation-seeking scores and prior other drug use predict subsequent ecstasy use among adolescents; 3) test whether previous low levels of parent monitoring and high levels of peer ecstasy use predict subsequent ecstasy use among adolescents; 4) test for changes in attitudes and beliefs towards ecstasy use among adolescents and test whether exposure to an anti-drug media campaign might have influenced adolescents' attitudes towards ecstasy use. Longitudinal data from the National Survey of Parents and Youth (NSPY), an epidemiologic study representative of the adolescent U.S. population (9-18 yeas old) will be used to address these aims. After initial exploratory data analyses, we will analyze data through cross-sectional and longitudinal logistic regression models to address each of the specific aims. First, we will estimate associations of prevalence and incidence of ecstasy use with demographics (age, gender, race/ethnicity), then, we will use alternating logistic regression to test whether there is evidence of clustering of adolescent ecstasy use by region of the country. Using longitudinal regression marginal models, we will test whether previous deviant behaviors, high sensation-seeking scores and high levels of prior other drug use predict subsequent ecstasy use among adolescents, as well as examine if lower levels of parent monitoring and high levels of peer ecstasy use predict subsequent ecstasy use among adolescents. Logistic regression models will test for changes in attitudes and beliefs towards ecstasy use among adolescents and to test whether exposure to an anti-drug media campaign influenced adolescents' attitudes towards ecstasy use. Finally, we believe that our study will bring public health contributions to better understand potential determinants of ecstasy use.