Testing the impact of the 8.2 ka BP abrupt climatic event on Mesolithic societies

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Rising global temperatures across the 20th and 21st centuries has caused the dramatic loss of ice volume. Ocean-Cryosphere interactions are considered to have been direct forcing factors for the trigger of Abrupt Climatic Events (ACEs) over geological time. Such events, therefore, offer suitable analogues for understanding the possible consequences of transgressing social and ecological tipping points under current and projected climatic warming. ACEs over the Holocene (11,700-present) have been proposed as having transformative impacts on human culture. The 8.2ka event, as the largest magnitude period of abrupt climate change during the Holocene, may therefore be considered as a key time to investigate the Mesolithic (10000-4000 BC) response to climatic stress. Many studies, however, have critical issues with either the chronology, the resolution of palaeocological records, or the statistical methods employed, limiting the efficacy of their conclusions. A more robust analysis will be achieved by producing high-resolution palaeoclimatic and palaeoecological records detailing seasonal climatic change, which detail how climate variations impacted key controls on human activity, such as resource availability. Quality assurance of the radiocarbon dataset will also be performed. Evidence for a relationship between societal change and climate forcing will then be tested using Radiocarbon-date Event Count Event modelling.