"Climate change mitigation in the face of nutrient supply risk: Limits of phosphorus supply and how they affect carbon dioxide removal."

“本提案中建议的研究的总体目标是了解和量化由于经济稀缺或出于环境考虑而对磷供应的潜在限制，以确定可用于改善磷供应链管理的选项，以及评估一系列减轻磷供应受限的危害和不利影响的政策选项。通过评估有限、昂贵甚至有害的营养供应对负碳排放生物来源的影响，既定的气候变化减缓战略将受到挑战。工作点1：（1）量化化肥贸易网络在“外部冲击”方面的短期系统性供应风险，例如由单边贸易政策、卫生或环境法规或地缘政治危机引起的风险;（2）了解中期和长期-由于投资战略和对当地资源枯竭的反应不足，造成全球生产能力短缺，从而造成长期的经济短缺;以及（3）调查与寡头垄断和卡特尔的存在有关的风险对日益集中的市场的影响，以及农业投入行业的横向一体化和从矿山到餐桌的供应链的纵向一体化趋势。二）方法和任务为了实现目标，相关和现实的叙述和P市场星座进行了调查，包括以下：北非或中东等地区的政治不稳定（合计约占记录储量的85% 19）可能直接影响磷的供应，例如通过罢工或叛乱，或间接通过资本投资不足，最终导致缺乏竞争力的葡萄酒结构从市场上退出。限制欧盟20国内交易的化肥中重金属镉的最大含量的努力可能会限制提供这种质量的供应商的数量，例如俄罗斯。因此，旨在为人类健康服务的东西可能会导致欧洲农业综合企业的价格水平上涨。中国是目前最大的生产国（根据英国地质服务局的数据，2015年占全球产量的50%以上），其P型经济基于大量的小型劳动密集型矿山21。目前的市场研究预测，由于成本增加和消耗，生产能力将大幅下降。假设资源数字不变，目前的生产水平只能再维持20-30年。如此大规模的需求转向世界市场采购，无疑将在不久的将来扰乱目前的磷供应链。供应风险可能源于P市场作为需求驱动市场的特征（即剩余产量不是由市场获得，而是由生产者储存）。价格水平增长缓慢，低于通货膨胀率，造成资本投资停滞，导致资源不足。只有随后的价格高峰才能刺激新生产资产的安装11。量化与这种叙述相关的供应风险需要一个自下而上的框架，该框架基于国际活跃代理人的全球网络和国家特定政策设置，以及反映不同市场参与者指导其投资决策的潜在战略和期望。然而，现有的磷供应模型要么基于静态储量和产量数据，要么利用“峰值磷”概念，要么使用国家或地区层面的总量26，从而隐藏了矿山或工厂层面的重要变化，忽视了影响生产资产投资决策的工程类型限制。

"The overarching aim of the research suggested in this proposal is to understand and quantify potential limits to P provision as a consequence of economic scarcity or out of environmental considerations, to identify the options available to improve the management of the P supply chain as well as to evaluate a range of policy options mitigating the hazards and adverse impacts of constrained P supplies. By assessing the impact of limited, expensive or even detrimental nutrient supply on biological sources of negative carbon emissions, established climate change mitigation strategies will be challenged. WP1: Quantification of economic scarcity of P i) Objective The objective is (1) to quantify the short-term systemic supply risk of the fertilizer trade network with respect to 'external shocks', for instance arising from one sided trade policy, health or environmental regulations or geopolitical crises; (2) to gain understanding of mid- and long-term economic scarcity as a consequence of inadequate investment strategies and responses to local resource depletion resulting in shortages of global production capacity; and to (3) investigate the impact of risks associated with the presence of oligopolies and cartels on an increasingly concentrated market and a trend of horizontal integration across agricultural input industries and vertical integration of the supply chain from mine to fork. ii) Methodology and tasks In order to achieve the objective, relevant and realistic narratives and P-market constellations are investigated, including the following: Political instability in regions such as North Africa or the Middle East (together accounting for roughly 85% of documented reserves19) could directly affect the supply of P, e.g. through strikes or revolts, or indirectly through inadequate capital investments, resulting in noncompetitive vintage structure being withdrawn from the market in the long run. Efforts to limit the maximum content of the heavy metal Cadmium in fertilizers traded within the EU20 could limit the number of suppliers available to deliver that quality, for instance Russia. What is intended to serve human health could therefore result in inflated price levels for the European agribusiness. China, the by far largest current producer (over 50% of global production in 2015 according the British Geological Service) has a P-economy based on a large number of small labor intensive mines21. Current market studies predict a significant decline in production capacity due to increasing costs and depletion. Assuming a static resource figure, the present production levels can only be sustained for another 20-30 years. A shift of demand of that magnitude towards sourcing at the world market would with no doubt disrupt the current P supply chain in the near future. Supply risk could arise from the very characteristics of the P-market being a demand driven market (i.e. surplus production is not acquired by the market but stockpiled by the producers). Price levels increasing only slowly and below the inflation rate cause sluggish capital investments, leading to insufficient resource adequacy. Only a subsequent price peak incentivizes the installation of new production assets11. The quantification of supply risks associated with such narratives requires a bottom up framework based on a global network of internationally active agents and country specific policy setups, as well as the reflection of potential strategies and expectations of different market players guiding their investment decisions. Existing P-supply models, however, either draw on the 'peak phosphorus' idea based on static reserve and production figures, or they use country or region level aggregates26, thereby hiding important variation at mine or industrial plant level and neglecting engineering-type constraints affecting the investment decision in production assets.