Triggers and Feedbacks of Climate Tipping Points

气候临界点的触发因素和反馈

• 批准号: 2871930
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Southampton
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2871930
• 关键词: Triggers; Feedbacks; Climate; Tipping; Points

Abrupt changes in the climate system could have potentially devastating socio-economic impacts. Simulating them in future climate scenarios is therefore of great importance. Future climate change scenarios are often based on the average or mean of climate model projections where abrupt changes and tipping points can appear in one or a few realizations of a subset of the models (Drijfhout et al. 2015). Additionally, climate models are often tuned to simulate a stable version of the present-day climate and remain untested in abrupt climate shift scenarios.We propose to extend the findings of Drijfhout et al. (2015) with the newest generation of climate model simulations, generating a catalogue of abrupt changes, along with analysis of the relevant feedbacks that may lead to abrupt change. For instance, changes in ocean heat and freshwater transports have a large impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is the main mode of ocean circulation in the Atlantic and impacts European climate. The initial focus will be on AMOC tipping points, with an additional focus on other tipping points that can be chosen from the catalogue of abrupt changes (i.e. abrupt sea ice loss, vegetation changes, etc.).

气候系统的突然变化可能会对社会经济产生潜在的破坏性影响。因此，在未来的气候情景中模拟它们非常重要。未来气候变化情景通常基于气候模型预测的平均值或均值，其中突变和临界点可能出现在模型子集的一个或几个实现中（Drijfhout等人，2015）。此外，气候模式通常被调整以模拟当前气候的稳定版本，并且在气候突变情景中仍然未经检验。我们建议使用最新一代的气候模式模拟扩展Drijfhout等人（2015）的研究结果，生成突变目录，沿着分析可能导致突变的相关反馈。例如，海洋热量和淡水输送的变化对大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）有很大影响，这是大西洋海洋环流的主要模式，影响欧洲气候。最初的重点将放在AMOC临界点上，另外还将重点放在可从突变目录中选择的其他临界点上（即海冰突然丧失、植被变化等）。