Triggers and Feedbacks of Climate Tipping Points

气候临界点的触发因素和反馈

• 批准号: 2871930
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Southampton
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2871930
• 关键词: Triggers; Feedbacks; Climate; Tipping; Points

Abrupt changes in the climate system could have potentially devastating socio-economic impacts. Simulating them in future climate scenarios is therefore of great importance. Future climate change scenarios are often based on the average or mean of climate model projections where abrupt changes and tipping points can appear in one or a few realizations of a subset of the models (Drijfhout et al. 2015). Additionally, climate models are often tuned to simulate a stable version of the present-day climate and remain untested in abrupt climate shift scenarios.We propose to extend the findings of Drijfhout et al. (2015) with the newest generation of climate model simulations, generating a catalogue of abrupt changes, along with analysis of the relevant feedbacks that may lead to abrupt change. For instance, changes in ocean heat and freshwater transports have a large impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is the main mode of ocean circulation in the Atlantic and impacts European climate. The initial focus will be on AMOC tipping points, with an additional focus on other tipping points that can be chosen from the catalogue of abrupt changes (i.e. abrupt sea ice loss, vegetation changes, etc.).

气候系统的突然变化可能会产生毁灭性的社会经济影响。因此，在未来的气候场景中模拟它们至关重要。未来的气候变化方案通常基于气候模型预测的平均或平均值，在这些模型的一个或几个实现中，可能会出现突然的变化和临界点（Drijfhout等，2015）。此外，经常对气候模型进行调整以模拟当今气候的稳定版本，并在突然的气候变化场景中未经测试。我们建议扩展Drijfhout等人的发现。 （2015年）具有最新一代的气候模型模拟，生成了突然变化的目录，并分析可能导致突然变化的相关反馈。例如，海热和淡水运输的变化对大西洋流通循环（AMOC）产生了很大的影响，这是大西洋中海洋循环的主要方式，影响欧洲气候。最初的焦点将放在AMOC临界点上，并额外地关注其他临界点，这些点可以从突然变化的目录（即突然的海冰丧失，植被变化等）中选择。