Understanding the scaling of impacts of Natural Climate Solutions for people, nature, and the climate

全球气候和生物多样性面临前所未有的威胁，对全世界人民的影响日益严重。作为回应，自然气候解决方案旨在恢复、管理和保护自然，以应对这些挑战。这些解决方案可能在政府、企业和民间社会实现全球可持续发展目标的计划中发挥重要作用。例如，波恩挑战是一项重大的国际倡议，旨在到2030年恢复3.5亿公顷退化土地。同样，在国际自然保护组织（CI）的自然气候解决方案路线图中，恢复是一个核心方法。因此，人们普遍呼吁“扩大”实施“自然气候解决方案”。但是，这些解决方案在为人类、自然和气候带来大规模积极成果方面取得的成功参差不齐。在某些情况下，这些倡议未能得到广泛采用。例如，许多森林恢复项目尚未走出试点阶段。在其他情况下，这些举措得到了大规模实施，但对可持续发展成果没有贡献。例如，2012年在菲律宾吕宋岛种植了100多万棵红树林幼苗，但到2020年，只有不到2%的幼苗存活了下来。相反，一些自然气候解决方案倡议成功地产生了大规模影响，如尼泊尔社区林业项目，该项目在恢复森林的同时，为1.9万个社区林业团体带来了生计效益。LISS DTP案例旨在确定自然气候解决方案倡议的特征，这些特征既影响其“扩大规模”的可能性，也影响其产生积极成果的能力。同样，项目还将确定可伸缩性和有效性之间的权衡。确定这种协同作用和权衡将有助于指导具有可扩展影响的计划的设计。这个LISS DTP案例将利用帝国理工学院和CI之间的合作。LISS DTP学生可以领导跨多个项目站点的比较案例研究。候选地点包括东非、南美、亚洲和其他地方。该项目预计将使用混合的定性和定量方法，可能包括空间统计分析。该项目将为学生提供独特的培训机会，与一个主要的国际保护组织一起发展、实施和传播研究成果。LISS DTP案例将包括三个主要组成部分，在2-3个案例站点同时进行，回答三个问题：是什么因素影响了为什么一些社区参与自然气候解决方案项目而另一些社区不参与？这个问题将通过对社区代表进行半结构化的关键信息提供者访谈来探讨。预计该项目对气候和生物多样性的影响是什么？这个问题将通过结合恢复位置的空间数据和次要信息来回答。项目对居民福祉的不同方面有何短期正面和负面影响？这个问题将通过在收养社区的家庭中进行调查来探讨。它将为学生提供独特的培训机会，发展，实施和传播一个主要的国际保护组织的研究。

The world faces unprecedented threats to its climate and biodiversity, increasingly impacting people worldwide. In response, Natural Climate Solutions aim to restore, manage, and protect nature to tackle these challenges. These Solutions might play a significant role in government, business, and civil society plans to meet global sustainability goals. For example, the Bonn Challenge is a major international initiative to restore 350 million hectares of degraded land by 2030. Similarly, restoration is a core approach in Conservation International's (CI) Natural Climate Solutions Roadmap. As such, there have been widespread calls to "scale up" the implementation of Natural Climate Solutions.But the success of these Solutions in delivering positive outcomes at scale for people, nature, and the climate has been mixed. In some cases, these initiatives fail to get widely adopted. For example, numerous forest restoration projects have not gone beyond the piloting stage. In other instances, these initiatives are implemented at scale but do not contribute to sustainable development outcomes. For instance, over one million mangrove seedlings were planted on the Filipino island of Luzon in 2012, but by 2020 less than 2% had survived. Conversely, some Natural Climate Solution initiatives have successfully delivered impacts at scale, such as the Nepal Community Forestry Program, which recovered forests while delivering livelihood benefits across 19,000 community forestry groups.This LISS DTP CASE aims to identify the features of Natural Climate Solution initiatives that influence both their likelihood of "scaling up" and their ability to deliver positive outcomes. Equally, the project will also identify trade-offs between scalability and effectiveness. Identifying such synergies and trade-offs will help guide the design of initiatives with scalable impacts.This LISS DTP CASE will leverage collaboration between Imperial College London and CI. The LISS DTP student could lead a comparative case study across several project sites. Candidate sites could include those in East Africa, South America, Asia, and elsewhere. The project is expected to use mixed qualitative and quantitative methods, potentially including spatial statistical analysis.The CASE project will provide the student with unique training opportunities, developing, implementing, and disseminating research with a major international conservation organisation.The LISS DTP CASE will involve three main components, conducted simultaneously across 2-3 case sites, answering three questions:1. What are the factors that influence why some communities engage in Natural Climate Solution projects while others do not? This question will be explored through semi-structured key informant interviews among community representatives.2. What are the predicted climate and biodiversity impacts of the project? This question will be answered by combining spatial data on the location of restoration with secondary information.3. What are the short-term positive and negative impacts of the project on different aspects of residents' well-being? This question will be explored through surveys among households in adopter communities. It will provide the student with unique training opportunities, developing, implementing, and disseminating research with a major international conservation organisation.