Impact of Holocene land use and climate change upon Brazil's Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot

由于几个世纪的森林砍伐，巴西的热带大西洋森林(AF)生物多样性异常丰富，极度濒危，只剩下不到20%的原始森林覆盖率。虽然没有亚马逊那么出名，但它被指定为全球生物多样性热点，突显了它的全球重要性和保护优先事项。自然资源保护者面临的一个关键挑战是，面对日益严重的火灾、干旱和森林砍伐，如何在未来最好地维持AF生态系统的功能和生物多样性(Wilson等人。2019年、2021年)。该项目可以通过古生态学结合建模提供对长期复原力、临界点和环境可持续性的见解，从而帮助应对这一挑战。它集中在AF的南部，横跨沿海热带雨林和以巴拉那松树为主的山地森林。这种标志性的松树是一种“活化石”，是侏罗纪恐龙的主要食物来源，也是近数千年来人类的主要食物来源。这个博士项目的首要目标是确定古代人类社会和气候变化是如何通过全新世-过去的12000年-塑造了南部AF的生物多样性、土地覆盖和火灾制度。为实现这一目标，将采取一种新的跨学科方法：1.对沼泽沉积物中的化石花粉和木炭进行基于实验室的分析，以重建全新世植被和火灾历史；2.基于代理人的模拟(ABM)，以量化哥伦布前土地利用的影响；3.与现有的古气候和考古数据的相关性，以确定全新世人类-气候-环境的关系。

Brazil's tropical Atlantic Forest (AF) is exceptionally biodiverse and critically endangered due to centuries of deforestation, with less than 20% of its original forest cover remaining. Although less famous than its Amazon cousin, its designation as a global 'Biodiversity Hotspot' highlights its global importance and conservation priority. A key challenge for conservationists is how best to maintain AF ecosystem functioning and biodiversity in the future, in the face of increasing fire, drought, and deforestation (Wilson et al. 2019, 2021). This project can help address this challenge by providing insights into long-term resilience, tipping points, and environmental sustainability via palaeoecology coupled with modelling. It focuses on the southern portion of the AF, spanning coastal tropical rainforest and upland forest dominated by 'Parana pine'. This iconic pine is a 'living fossil' which has been a key food source - both for dinosaurs during the Jurassic as well as humans over recent millennia. The overarching aim of this PhD project is to determine how ancient human societies and climate change have shaped the biodiversity, land cover, and fire regime of the southern AF through the Holocene - the last 12,000 years. To achieve this aim, a novel inter-disciplinary approach will be undertaken: 1. Lab-based analysis of fossil pollen and charcoal from bog sediments to reconstruct Holocene vegetation and fire history; 2. Agent-based modelling (ABM) to quantify pre-Columbian land-use impacts; 3. Correlation with existing palaeoclimate and archaeological data to determine Holocene human-climate-environment relationships.