Heat waves in the UK: impacts and public health responses

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In August 2003, a severe heat wave resulted in the deaths of more than 14,000 people in France and of many more in neighbouring countries. The UK was fortunate in suffering less oppressive and less unrelenting temperatures, but there were still around 2,000 deaths. Because of global warming, the chance of experiencing a similar heat wave in Britain is increasing, and the lesson from France is that our public health systems may not have been well-prepared to respond to such a threat.Prompted by the experience of France, the Department of Health launched a heat wave plan for England in 2004. Its provisions include public health warnings and targeted advice and actions to protect those at greatest risk. The study we propose is aimed at providing evidence to help improve how this heat wave plan can be most effective.Our analyses will quantify the level of heat-related risk for different sections of the population, and so determine the degree to which vulnerability to heat waves is concentrated in high-risk groups that may be targeted by specific protection measures. We will also estimate the risk of dangerous heat waves occurring now and in future years, and assess how we can best detect evolving heat wave threats at an early stage.A number of (mainly elderly) people and their carers will be interviewed to understand what knowledge they have about the risks and responses to heat waves. We will also assess the operation of the current heat wave plan through semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, including health and social care professionals, community voluntary workers, and residential home managers. Its cost-effectiveness will be assessed using evidence about the change in the number of heat-deaths occurring during heat waves since the plan was implemented.The results of the research will be discussed with policy makers and key public health professionals involved in heat wave planning to draw conclusions about how the needed responses of the health, social and other services can be improved.The results will be made available to the public through non-technical web reports and participation of research team members in policy-focused meetings.