Modelling groundwater flood risk in the Chalk aquifer from future extreme rainfall events

最近的事件表明，地下水泛滥对财产、基础设施和社会破坏构成严重威胁，对英格兰东南部的白垩地区来说，这是一个特别的问题。人们对这种风险的性质知之甚少，也没有适当的方法来评估它。本提案整合了最先进的土壤、非饱和带、地下水和地表水模型，为风险评估提供了一种新的建模工具，并研究了使用更简单的模型来预警潜在的洪水发生和区域风险评估。来自NERC低地集水区研究专题方案的实验数据和来自受影响地区的历史数据将用于检验假设并开发和验证模型。这些模型将在未来的气候状态下运行，使用气候模型集合来评估当前和未来的风险。

Recent events have shown that groundwater flooding is a serious risk to property, infrastructure and social disruption, and is a particular problem for the Chalk of South East England. The nature of this risk is poorly understood, and there is no adequate methodology to assess it. This proposal integrates state-of-the-art models of the soil, unsaturated zone, groundwater and surface water to provide a new modelling tool for risk assessment, and also investigates the use of simpler models for warning of the potential onset of flooding and regional assessment of risk. Experimental data from the NERC Lowland Catchment Research Thematic Programme and historical data from affected areas will be used to test hypotheses and develop and validate the models. The models will be run for future climate states to assess current and future risk using an ensemble of climate models.