Familial and Environmental Determinants of Alcohol Use Trajectories: Examining 25 Years of Follow-up Data in a Nationally Representative Cohort of Youth

项目总结/摘要 饮酒行为发生在一个社会生态环境中，个体受到以下因素的影响： 个人、人际、社区、社会和政治因素。青春期是一个发育敏感的 这些因素可能会影响个人饮酒的频率和持续时间。而 美国年轻人的饮酒模式往往表现为消费频率不断上升， 年龄，直到20多岁中后期开始减少使用，这些年龄段的饮酒模式更多 比群体平均水平所暗示的要异质。相反，个体的子组可以遵循子集 饮酒模式与饮酒开始时间、消费频率和狂欢的变化 饮酒行为。虽然先前的研究已经记录了样本中的异质饮酒轨迹， 在美国的年轻人中，没有文献模拟过同时包含饮酒和饮酒的平行轨迹组。 频率和酗酒同时进行。很少有人对青少年如何接触和 经验可能会影响轨迹成员。这项研究推进了我们目前对 酒精使用轨迹通过模拟酒精使用的平行轨迹以及狂饮行为。为 目标1，我们将使用双轨迹潜在增长混合模型（LGMM）来识别和描述轨迹 在美国全国代表性样本中， 青少年一直跟踪到成年。在目标2中，我们将使用多项式回归方法来 调查家庭和环境因素的独立和交互影响， 青少年对确定的个人酒精使用轨迹。对长期饮酒的更深入了解 使用模式及其对成年期的影响可能会为未来的减少伤害信息传递提供信息， 编程.此外，检查双（有时称为平行过程）轨迹之间， 总体饮酒和狂饮的频率将有助于识别可能导致 当只单独观察一种行为结果时，

Project Summary/Abstract Drinking use behaviors occur within a social-ecological environment where individuals are influenced by personal, interpersonal, community, societal and political factors. Adolescence is a developmentally sensitive time period where such factors may influence how frequently and consistently individuals use alcohol. While drinking patterns for young people in the US tend to be typified by escalating frequency of consumption with age, up until a decrease in use starting in the mid- to late-20s, drinking patterns across these ages are more heterogeneous than the group average would suggest. Instead, subgroups of individuals may follow a subset of drinking patterns with variations in the timing of drinking initiation, frequency of consumption, and binge drinking behaviors. While prior research has documented heterogeneous drinking trajectories within samples of young people in the US, no literature has modeled parallel trajectory groups incorporating both drinking frequency and binge drinking simultaneously. Fewer have modeled how adolescent exposures and experiences may influence trajectory membership. The proposed study advances our current understanding of alcohol use trajectories by modeling parallel trajectories of alcohol use as well as binge drinking behaviors. For aim 1, we will use dual trajectory Latent Growth Mixture Modeling (LGMM) to identify and describe trajectories of alcohol use and binge drinking from age 15 through 40 in a nationally representative sample of US adolescents followed longitudinally into adulthood. In aim 2, we will use multinomial regression approaches to investigate the independent and interactive influences of familial and environmental factors experienced in adolescence on the identified individual alcohol use trajectories. A deeper understanding of long-term alcohol use patterns and their influences into adulthood may inform future harm reduction messaging and programming. In addition, examining dual (sometimes referred to as parallel process) trajectories between frequency of drinking overall and binge drinking will help identify variations in drinking behaviors that may be masked when looking at only one behavioral outcome in isolation.