Familial and Environmental Determinants of Alcohol Use Trajectories: Examining 25 Years of Follow-up Data in a Nationally Representative Cohort of Youth

项目摘要/摘要 饮酒行为发生在个人受到影响的社会生态环境中 个人、人际、社区、社会和政治因素。青春期是一种发育敏感的时期 这些因素可能会影响个人饮酒的频率和一致性的时间段。而当 在美国，年轻人的饮酒模式往往表现为消费频率的上升 年龄，直到从25岁中后期开始减少饮酒，这些年龄段的饮酒模式 比群体平均水平所暗示的要复杂得多。取而代之的是，个体的子组可以跟随子集 饮酒模式随饮酒开始时间、饮酒频率和狂欢程度的变化 饮酒行为。虽然先前的研究已经记录了样本中不同种类的饮酒轨迹 在美国的年轻人中，没有文学作品将饮酒和饮酒这两个平行轨迹的群体建模 频率和酗酒同时进行。很少有人模拟青少年如何暴露和 经验可能会影响轨迹成员资格。拟议的研究增进了我们目前对 通过对酒精使用以及酗酒行为的平行轨迹进行建模，得出酒精使用轨迹。为 目标1，我们将使用双轨迹潜在生长混合模型(LGMM)来识别和描述轨迹 在美国具有全国代表性的样本中，15岁至40岁之间酗酒和酗酒的情况 青少年纵向跟踪到成年期。在目标2中，我们将使用多项回归方法来 调查家庭和环境因素在以下方面的独立和交互影响 青春期对已确定的个人饮酒轨迹的影响。对长期饮酒有更深入的了解 使用模式及其对成年的影响可能会为未来的减少危害信息和 编程。此外，检查两个(有时称为并行过程)之间的轨迹 整体饮酒和酗酒的频率将有助于识别饮酒行为的变化，这些变化可能是 当只单独观察一种行为结果时，会被遮盖。

Project Summary/Abstract Drinking use behaviors occur within a social-ecological environment where individuals are influenced by personal, interpersonal, community, societal and political factors. Adolescence is a developmentally sensitive time period where such factors may influence how frequently and consistently individuals use alcohol. While drinking patterns for young people in the US tend to be typified by escalating frequency of consumption with age, up until a decrease in use starting in the mid- to late-20s, drinking patterns across these ages are more heterogeneous than the group average would suggest. Instead, subgroups of individuals may follow a subset of drinking patterns with variations in the timing of drinking initiation, frequency of consumption, and binge drinking behaviors. While prior research has documented heterogeneous drinking trajectories within samples of young people in the US, no literature has modeled parallel trajectory groups incorporating both drinking frequency and binge drinking simultaneously. Fewer have modeled how adolescent exposures and experiences may influence trajectory membership. The proposed study advances our current understanding of alcohol use trajectories by modeling parallel trajectories of alcohol use as well as binge drinking behaviors. For aim 1, we will use dual trajectory Latent Growth Mixture Modeling (LGMM) to identify and describe trajectories of alcohol use and binge drinking from age 15 through 40 in a nationally representative sample of US adolescents followed longitudinally into adulthood. In aim 2, we will use multinomial regression approaches to investigate the independent and interactive influences of familial and environmental factors experienced in adolescence on the identified individual alcohol use trajectories. A deeper understanding of long-term alcohol use patterns and their influences into adulthood may inform future harm reduction messaging and programming. In addition, examining dual (sometimes referred to as parallel process) trajectories between frequency of drinking overall and binge drinking will help identify variations in drinking behaviors that may be masked when looking at only one behavioral outcome in isolation.