Modelled estimation of population immunity for coccidioidomycosis and the role of immunologically naïve populations in the shifting epidemiology of coccidioidomycosis in California

球孢子菌病人群免疫力的模型估计以及免疫学上未接触过的人群在加利福尼亚州球孢子菌病流行病学变化中的作用

• 批准号: 10740731
• 负责人: Jennifer Head
• 金额: $ 11.56万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-08-03 至 2028-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10740731
• 关键词: Acceleration; Accounting; Age; Area; Awareness; Bayesian Modeling; Biology; Biometry; Black Populations; Body part; California; Career Mobility; Case Study; Censuses; Cessation of life; Chronic; Coccidioides; Coccidioidomycosis; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Computational Technique; Computing Methodologies; County; Data; Decision Making; Demography; Detection; Development; Diagnostic; Disease; Disparity; Droughts; Emerging Communicable Diseases; Environment; Environmental Health; Epidemiologist; Epidemiology; Ethnic Origin; Ethnic Population; Exhibits; FDA approved; Future; General Population; Geographic Locations; Geography; Goals; Grant; Head; Health system; Hispanic Populations; Humoral Immunities; Hypersensitivity skin testing; Immune; Immunity; Immunize; Immunologics; Immunology; Incidence; Individual; Infection; Infectious Disease Epidemiology; Inhalation; Knowledge; Leadership; Link; Location; Mathematics; Measures; Meningitis; Mentored Research Scientist Development Award; Mentors; Mentorship; Methods; Military Personnel; Modeling; Movement; Mycoses; Occupational; Patients; Pattern; Persons; Physicians; Population; Predisposition; Prevalence; Probability; Public Health; Publishing; Race; Recording of previous events; Recreation; Reporting; Reproduction spores; Research; Research Activity; Research Project Grants; Resource Allocation; Resources; Respiratory Disease; Respiratory Tract Infections; Risk; Risk Estimate; Risk Factors; Role; Scientist; Screening procedure; Series; Seroprevalences; Severities; Soil; Source; Subgroup; Surveys; Symptoms; System; Testing; Time; Training; Universities; Work; Writing; age related; burden of illness; career; career development; cell mediated immune response; climate change; community acquired pneumonia; data integration; diagnostic tool; disability-adjusted life years; disease transmission; experience; faculty mentor; health care availability; health care disparity; health care service utilization; infection risk; large datasets; mortality; multiple data sources; neglect; racial population; recruit; serosurvey; skills; social epidemiology; social factors; surveillance data; transmission process; vaccination strategy

PROJECT SUMMARY This K01 award will support the career development of Dr. Jennifer Head, an Epidemiologist in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of California, Berkeley. The candidate’s goal is to become a leader in the development and application of mathematical and statistical approaches to understand the transmission dynamics of emerging infectious diseases. This application proposes linked career development and research activities to fill an important gap in understanding population immunity to coccidioidomycosis, an emerging infectious disease caused by inhalation of soil-dwelling Coccidioides spores. While CDC estimates nearly 150,000 cases of coccidioidomycosis go uncounted each year, direct methods for estimating population immunity for coccidioidomycosis are unavailable. Absent estimates of prior immunity for coccidioidomycosis, we are unable to identify populations experiencing higher rates of under-reporting, understand the role of low population immunity in the emergence of the disease in new regions, nor explain disparities in infection risk and case severity. This project aims to advance the candidate’s expertise and skills in computational methods for robustly estimating prior immunity in populations and incorporating population immunity into models examining key drivers of disease. The candidate will develop a quantitative Bayesian framework for estimating prior immunity to coccidioidomycosis by geographic region in California (Aim 1). The candidate will extend the framework to identify disparities in under-reporting by race and ethnicity, yielding a more accurate assessment of disparities in disease incidence (Aim 2). Estimates of population immunity will be integrated into a statistical framework capable of estimating key risk factors for infection in the presence of mobile immune and non- immune populations (Aim 3). Through partnership with California Department of Public Health, the work will leverage patient data on >94,000 geolocated cases reported since 2000. The 5-year training plan includes primary mentorship from three experienced and committed faculty mentors at UC Berkeley with expertise in biostatistics, infectious disease epidemiology and disease dynamics. Four additional mentors—top leaders in fungal biology, immunology, demography, and social epidemiology—will support the candidate. Leadership of the proposed research, along with a training plan involving coursework, and mentored grant writing and project management, will advance the candidate’s training objectives to: 1) build skills in assessing the role of population immunity in disease transmission; 2) develop expertise in measuring and integrating social factors into transmission models; 3) develop skills to overcome computational barriers when working with large datasets; and 4) strengthen collaborative partnerships and build leadership skills for directing transdisciplinary research projects. UC Berkeley’s commitment to early career scientists; leadership in epidemiology, biostatistics, and fungal biology; strong track record of research in infectious diseases; and close partnerships with public health agencies will provide the candidate an outstanding environment to advance her career goals.

项目总结